The prediction business going hot and heavy

Jason Calacanis is the latest to jump in with his 2006 predictions.

My predictions last year?

Didn’t come true: #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18. That’s 11 out of 19 items. Not a good track record.

I’ll probably leave the prediction business to John Battelle, who has done a much better job at it so far.

If I were to predict something for 2006, though, it would be similar to what Steve Rubel is focusing on: that blog search simply needs to get better.

Oh, and for a fun little touch, Nathan did a little movie of me and Steve Rubel and Mini-Microsoft. Totally fictionalized, of course!

Published by

Robert Scoble

As Startup Liaison for Rackspace, the Open Cloud Computing Company, Scoble travels the world looking for what's happening on the bleeding edge of technology for Rackspace's startup program. He's interviewed thousands of executives and technology innovators and reports what he learns in books ("The Age of Context," a book coauthored with Forbes author Shel Israel, has been released at http://amzn.to/AgeOfContext ), YouTube, and many social media sites where he's followed by millions of people. Best place to watch me is on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/RobertScoble

Comments

  1. It’s not about what comes true though it’s about generating discussion.

    My opinion would be predict away.

    (it seems you have lost some weight in the video 😉 ?)

  2. It’s not about what comes true though it’s about generating discussion.

    My opinion would be predict away.

    (it seems you have lost some weight in the video 😉 ?)

  3. More Predictions For 2006

    If my solitary prediction for 2006 isn’t good enough for you like to start at Robert Scoble’s blog as a jump-off point… Or, see predictions that have recently been blogged via Technorati.

    …

  4. My prediction for 2006 is that at the end of 2006, many bloggers and columnists will make predictions about 2007, many of which will not come true.

    My prediction is thus far the most likely to come true of any I’ve seen 😉

  5. My prediction for 2006 is that at the end of 2006, many bloggers and columnists will make predictions about 2007, many of which will not come true.

    My prediction is thus far the most likely to come true of any I’ve seen 😉

  8. scoble i have no idea how you manage over 500 feeds. you need a personal memeorandum to sort thru all the cross linking.

    rss was a turn on too me, then i got mentally burned when i started subscribing like a wild animal.

    between digg.com theinquirer.net and tech.memeorandum i am covered now for all my content needs and can be sane again.

    someone needs to make something that sorts my subscribed content and gives it to me in a more managable way. text analysis, link analysis, all that needs to be done because the amount of content out there now is just too much.

  9. scoble i have no idea how you manage over 500 feeds. you need a personal memeorandum to sort thru all the cross linking.

    rss was a turn on too me, then i got mentally burned when i started subscribing like a wild animal.

    between digg.com theinquirer.net and tech.memeorandum i am covered now for all my content needs and can be sane again.

    someone needs to make something that sorts my subscribed content and gives it to me in a more managable way. text analysis, link analysis, all that needs to be done because the amount of content out there now is just too much.

  10. #5 could be true, depending on how you define “interesting.” Everyone is talking about XBox 360.

    But I’m curious about #13, which you consider to have been correct: Which “major product” did MS open source in 2005?

  11. #5 could be true, depending on how you define “interesting.” Everyone is talking about XBox 360.

    But I’m curious about #13, which you consider to have been correct: Which “major product” did MS open source in 2005?

  16. Robert, I love how you keep trying to will a mainstream market for the Tablet PC into existence!

    As the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink. Most people still don’t need the ability to draw directly on the screen, especially not when you have to make sacrifices in cost, dimensions, and/or space to do it.

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s very useful in some markets, but only some.

  17. Robert, I love how you keep trying to will a mainstream market for the Tablet PC into existence!

    As the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink. Most people still don’t need the ability to draw directly on the screen, especially not when you have to make sacrifices in cost, dimensions, and/or space to do it.

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s very useful in some markets, but only some.

  18. 13) Microsoft will open source a major product. My guess is it’ll be Train Simulator since there’s no hope that Train Simulator will ever be a runaway success like Halo 2, but Train Simulator still has hundreds of thousands of devoted fans.

    Ok, so what major product did Microsoft Open Source? I am trying to think really hard here, but it evades me…

  19. 13) Microsoft will open source a major product. My guess is it’ll be Train Simulator since there’s no hope that Train Simulator will ever be a runaway success like Halo 2, but Train Simulator still has hundreds of thousands of devoted fans.

    Ok, so what major product did Microsoft Open Source? I am trying to think really hard here, but it evades me…

  20. Jonathan, I agree that whether a Tablet PC makes sense for someone depends on what they want to do with it.

    As a developer, I like to sketch out ideas before I implement them. And I prefer keeping handwritten notes, annotated screenshots, and the like while I’m coding or working through a problem. So the built-in digitizer-part of the Tablet PC fits well for how I work.

    I know my use of a Tablet PC is not mainstream though.

    But all I have to do is watch my niece curled up in a ball on the couch-Tablet PC in hand-playing online games and IMing her friends or my nephew using his Tablet PC to take notes in college to know that the form factor is much more mainstream than how I use it.

  21. Jonathan, I agree that whether a Tablet PC makes sense for someone depends on what they want to do with it.

    As a developer, I like to sketch out ideas before I implement them. And I prefer keeping handwritten notes, annotated screenshots, and the like while I’m coding or working through a problem. So the built-in digitizer-part of the Tablet PC fits well for how I work.

    I know my use of a Tablet PC is not mainstream though.

    But all I have to do is watch my niece curled up in a ball on the couch-Tablet PC in hand-playing online games and IMing her friends or my nephew using his Tablet PC to take notes in college to know that the form factor is much more mainstream than how I use it.

  27. One prediction of mine, already happened…

    NBC U takes controlling stake in MSNBC
    Deal allows conglom to take full control within 2 years. After years of losses and hundreds of millions invested, Microsoft laid the groundwork to exit the cable news business by selling a controlling stake in 24-hour news channel MSNBC to NBC Universal.

    Vista and Office 12 will be hard upsells, nothing major until 2008. Xbox will further waste billions (Console Wars, the 2006 theme), ERP won’t get a foothold (Dynamics rebranding a future trainwreck). Live will prove to be just half-baked Ozzie Fuzzy Wuzzy’isms. SQL/Exchange/Server 2003 will see serious pickup, a major saving grace. MFST will whip milk into ice cream, trying to get anything to stick, outside of legacy OS and Office, but nothing will take (it never does). Serious cut into cash hoard. MFST stock won’t move much at all (for the entire year). Basically a do-nothing year, as MFST lumbers to toss Vista out of the plane, and develop an ‘ecosystem’ around such. And oh, Tablet will fail to get any traction, for yet another year. MFST will overhaul their Marketing, reorg. serious. And the fluffy MFST bloggers will continue on, as usual, in the Web 2.0 bubble baths.

  28. One prediction of mine, already happened…

    NBC U takes controlling stake in MSNBC
    Deal allows conglom to take full control within 2 years. After years of losses and hundreds of millions invested, Microsoft laid the groundwork to exit the cable news business by selling a controlling stake in 24-hour news channel MSNBC to NBC Universal.

    Vista and Office 12 will be hard upsells, nothing major until 2008. Xbox will further waste billions (Console Wars, the 2006 theme), ERP won’t get a foothold (Dynamics rebranding a future trainwreck). Live will prove to be just half-baked Ozzie Fuzzy Wuzzy’isms. SQL/Exchange/Server 2003 will see serious pickup, a major saving grace. MFST will whip milk into ice cream, trying to get anything to stick, outside of legacy OS and Office, but nothing will take (it never does). Serious cut into cash hoard. MFST stock won’t move much at all (for the entire year). Basically a do-nothing year, as MFST lumbers to toss Vista out of the plane, and develop an ‘ecosystem’ around such. And oh, Tablet will fail to get any traction, for yet another year. MFST will overhaul their Marketing, reorg. serious. And the fluffy MFST bloggers will continue on, as usual, in the Web 2.0 bubble baths.

  33. Maybe a good thing that you aren’t doing a prediction this year…

    16 out of 18 wrong as I read it, and 2 are dead-obvious “the sun will rise tomorrow” pointlessly useless.

    3) “Several more people will get fired FOR blogging.” - Duh, and sometime next year it will rain. Pointless prediction.
    7) “Three things will join…” Enough with the convergence mashup rot. Nope. Wrong.
    8) “HDTV. It will be big. ger.” No, not even close to matching the hype. Depends on how you define ‘bigger’ though.
    9) “RSS will go mainstream.” Not even close, for hard numbers only look to Pew Research, saying only 5% know and use. Mainstream is usually defined as 51%.
    11)13) “Microsoft will open source a major product.” - Define “major”…token-pointless one-off’s and faux open-formats (Office) don’t count.
    15)

  34. Maybe a good thing that you aren’t doing a prediction this year…

    16 out of 18 wrong as I read it, and 2 are dead-obvious “the sun will rise tomorrow” pointlessly useless.

    3) “Several more people will get fired FOR blogging.” - Duh, and sometime next year it will rain. Pointless prediction.
    7) “Three things will join…” Enough with the convergence mashup rot. Nope. Wrong.
    8) “HDTV. It will be big. ger.” No, not even close to matching the hype. Depends on how you define ‘bigger’ though.
    9) “RSS will go mainstream.” Not even close, for hard numbers only look to Pew Research, saying only 5% know and use. Mainstream is usually defined as 51%.
    11)13) “Microsoft will open source a major product.” - Define “major”…token-pointless one-off’s and faux open-formats (Office) don’t count.
    15)

  41. #7? Is there a cell phone with a hard drive and Skye capability? Or did I misinterpret that one?
    #13? Which product did Microsoft open source.

    It would be cool if you did a blow-by-blow recap of each of your predictions that did (and didn’t) come true for those of us who missed stuff.

  42. #7? Is there a cell phone with a hard drive and Skye capability? Or did I misinterpret that one?
    #13? Which product did Microsoft open source.

    It would be cool if you did a blow-by-blow recap of each of your predictions that did (and didn’t) come true for those of us who missed stuff.

  45. Q: Why don’t you answer Mr. Hawk’s questions?

    A: Same reason why I don’t answer stalking conspiracy-theory UFO Project Paperclip nutheads. As they say never wrestle with a pig, you will only dirty yourself and the pig likes it.

    Exposed? I advertised and marketed it.

  46. Q: Why don’t you answer Mr. Hawk’s questions?

    A: Same reason why I don’t answer stalking conspiracy-theory UFO Project Paperclip nutheads. As they say never wrestle with a pig, you will only dirty yourself and the pig likes it.

    Exposed? I advertised and marketed it.

  47. I predict that in 2006, Robert will, at least twice, read something that someone from Microsoft said, and rather than contacting that person and getting their side of it, fire off a rant/flame that leaves that person’s ass hanging in the wind.

    Three days later, when other people outside of Microsoft bother to do the basic investigative work that he should have done, he’ll do it, and try to sound contrite about it.

    Of course, if it’s Ballmer, he’ll “not want to say anything until he has all the facts in”, showing that it’s only when his career is in imminent danger that he goes for “correct” over “first”.

  48. I predict that in 2006, Robert will, at least twice, read something that someone from Microsoft said, and rather than contacting that person and getting their side of it, fire off a rant/flame that leaves that person’s ass hanging in the wind.

    Three days later, when other people outside of Microsoft bother to do the basic investigative work that he should have done, he’ll do it, and try to sound contrite about it.

    Of course, if it’s Ballmer, he’ll “not want to say anything until he has all the facts in”, showing that it’s only when his career is in imminent danger that he goes for “correct” over “first”.

  49. Still no answer to the open source question. Office XML isn’t an application and some question if it really is open (other companies worked on it, independent peer review, no hidden gotcha’s).

  50. Still no answer to the open source question. Office XML isn’t an application and some question if it really is open (other companies worked on it, independent peer review, no hidden gotcha’s).

  53. My 2006 Predictions

    Since everyone else is doing it…
    1) Intel will make a comeback in the CPU arena when they finally ditch NetBurst and start shipping Pentium-M based desktop processors with 64-bit support. They may even integrate a memory controller before the e…