The new “Apple is dying” meme

You are on crack if you think that’s an excellent post. You and PT are alone. Read the comments, read the garbage on the site, try to read his “books”, he’s a craptastic self-promoter.

Please, point out anything: a sentence, a phrase, anything in that wandering drivel that is excellent.

You are on crack if you think that’s an excellent post. You and PT are alone. Read the comments, read the garbage on the site, try to read his “books”, he’s a craptastic self-promoter.

Please, point out anything: a sentence, a phrase, anything in that wandering drivel that is excellent.

Goebbels: it’s excellent simply because it pissed you off. Heheheh.

Goebbels: it’s excellent simply because it pissed you off. Heheheh.

I don’t think the Reboot analogy holds much weight because one of the goals of conferences is to connect with others and the moment you pull out an iPod you isolate yourself. That they didn’t bring it to Reboot doesn’t mean it’s not sitting in their hotel room waiting for the gym or flight home.

My gut feeling is that iPods are not yet facing much competition from cell phones because the value lies in the entire iTunes system for acquiring music. Short term, I think the carriers will put to many little barriers (i.e. crippling bluetooth or file transfers) for people to want to switch. Worth noting however is that cheaper watches (those that are not status symbols) have seen sales decline as people use their cell phones to check the time.

I don’t think the Reboot analogy holds much weight because one of the goals of conferences is to connect with others and the moment you pull out an iPod you isolate yourself. That they didn’t bring it to Reboot doesn’t mean it’s not sitting in their hotel room waiting for the gym or flight home.

My gut feeling is that iPods are not yet facing much competition from cell phones because the value lies in the entire iTunes system for acquiring music. Short term, I think the carriers will put to many little barriers (i.e. crippling bluetooth or file transfers) for people to want to switch. Worth noting however is that cheaper watches (those that are not status symbols) have seen sales decline as people use their cell phones to check the time.

This propaganda has to stop! Everyone reading this should realize that you come from the evil empire (Microsaft) and should not be trusted, even though you left. You are still programmed to think much like the sentinels in the Matrix. Until technology advances enough here in the states iPods will thrive. Cellphone technology just isn’t there yet, unless you live in Asia where everything moves so much faster.

This propaganda has to stop! Everyone reading this should realize that you come from the evil empire (Microsaft) and should not be trusted, even though you left. You are still programmed to think much like the sentinels in the Matrix. Until technology advances enough here in the states iPods will thrive. Cellphone technology just isn’t there yet, unless you live in Asia where everything moves so much faster.

Spongechum: ahh, it’s so predictable. Say something bad about Apple and the idiots show up. This has been happening since the 1980s. I’ll bet it happens long after I’m dead. Go tell it to my son, the Apple lover. Even he’s picking on Apple lately: http://miniscoble.wordpress.com/2006/07/19/ipods-can-blow/

Spongechum: ahh, it’s so predictable. Say something bad about Apple and the idiots show up. This has been happening since the 1980s. I’ll bet it happens long after I’m dead. Go tell it to my son, the Apple lover. Even he’s picking on Apple lately: http://miniscoble.wordpress.com/2006/07/19/ipods-can-blow/

It doesn’t piss me off; it makes me laugh!

I would even disagree with Ken B; iPods are socializing. Most of my friends have dockable stereos; we swap iPods, we check out tunes, we share photos. You don’t have to tune out the world.

Seriously, Scoble, point out anything intelligent in that drivel, anything.

It doesn’t piss me off; it makes me laugh!

I would even disagree with Ken B; iPods are socializing. Most of my friends have dockable stereos; we swap iPods, we check out tunes, we share photos. You don’t have to tune out the world.

Seriously, Scoble, point out anything intelligent in that drivel, anything.

I keep trying to find anyting intelligent in yours. I get tired. I’m going back to cleaning out the garage.

I keep trying to find anyting intelligent in yours. I get tired. I’m going back to cleaning out the garage.

“Say something bad about Apple and the idiots show up.”

That’s nice: insult him for expressing what everyone else is saying about this moron.

Maybe it’s say something stupid about Apple and fans will correct you.

Do you actually think we need a video of Dvorak to know what you, he, and Thurott are all about: hit whoring by saying stupid sh!t.

“Say something bad about Apple and the idiots show up.”

That’s nice: insult him for expressing what everyone else is saying about this moron.

Maybe it’s say something stupid about Apple and fans will correct you.

Do you actually think we need a video of Dvorak to know what you, he, and Thurott are all about: hit whoring by saying stupid sh!t.

Yup, run away, Scobie… Classic.

Yup, run away, Scobie… Classic.

[...] Scoble points to the lastest Apple is Dying rant. [...]

Goebbels: the whole thing is more intelligent than anything you’ve said since.

I love how he takes on his critics here: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2006/07/stampeded_by_ma.html

So, I guess you think Apple is safe forever with its iPod. That’s OK. I thought the same thing in 1989 back when I thought Apple would end up owning the industry.

Goebbels: the whole thing is more intelligent than anything you’ve said since.

I love how he takes on his critics here: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2006/07/stampeded_by_ma.html

So, I guess you think Apple is safe forever with its iPod. That’s OK. I thought the same thing in 1989 back when I thought Apple would end up owning the industry.

Idiot? Amazing that a one-time Microsofty has the creativity to come up with that. Why did you leave Microshaft? Well, let me answer that for you, because obviously you put on enough pounds strapped behind a desk working for the big old Strabucks donut on the Eastside. What have you done lately? NOTHING!!! Your only claim to fame is this blog? SAD, sad, sad… Go create something original and I will bet that you can’t do it without an Apple computer. Why do you backup Microcrap so much? Didn’t they fire you? Why support them then? When was the last time they came out with an OS that actually worked? That never crashed? That allowed normal people to create every day tasks? NEVER!!! I use to support the people at MS but then the Apple OS stepped up and awoke my eyes and it all started with my first purchase of an ipod. Apple has an advantage of making things simple for normal people while the Microcritters in Redmond look for evil ways to make a quick buck on their stocks as mom and pops have to call customer support just to install the OS.

Please stop supporting the regime that you worked for and move on.

Idiot? Amazing that a one-time Microsofty has the creativity to come up with that. Why did you leave Microshaft? Well, let me answer that for you, because obviously you put on enough pounds strapped behind a desk working for the big old Strabucks donut on the Eastside. What have you done lately? NOTHING!!! Your only claim to fame is this blog? SAD, sad, sad… Go create something original and I will bet that you can’t do it without an Apple computer. Why do you backup Microcrap so much? Didn’t they fire you? Why support them then? When was the last time they came out with an OS that actually worked? That never crashed? That allowed normal people to create every day tasks? NEVER!!! I use to support the people at MS but then the Apple OS stepped up and awoke my eyes and it all started with my first purchase of an ipod. Apple has an advantage of making things simple for normal people while the Microcritters in Redmond look for evil ways to make a quick buck on their stocks as mom and pops have to call customer support just to install the OS.

Please stop supporting the regime that you worked for and move on.

Spongechum: that’s the last post of that quality you get to post here. Go somewhere else. I wasn’t fired. Fired people get walked out with security guards. Go check Channel 9. I interviewed Bill Gates’ TA after I quit my job.

Spongechum: that’s the last post of that quality you get to post here. Go somewhere else. I wasn’t fired. Fired people get walked out with security guards. Go check Channel 9. I interviewed Bill Gates’ TA after I quit my job.

Please, Scoble. Calling his comments moronic does not equate to believing Apple is safe forever. Positing such a conclusion is possibly stupider than some of his.

Let’s start simple: “Until 2004 Apple had the MP3 player market mostly to itself and boasted over 80% market share at Christmas 2004.”

Already in 2004 there were music phones. Apple had sold about 30 million iPods. So according to his logic, they already had 0% marketshare and it’s gone up since. His argument is based on an absurd drop off.

That’s the first thing he says non ad hominem; surprising because in his comments he said he was going to reply to each of us individually, not mock us.

Have I passed his level of intelligence yet, Scobie? Do I need to break it down line for line, or are you going to continue to claim this guy is brilliant? That I’m an idiot because I called you on your idiocy as soon as you posted?

You decide?

Please, Scoble. Calling his comments moronic does not equate to believing Apple is safe forever. Positing such a conclusion is possibly stupider than some of his.

Let’s start simple: “Until 2004 Apple had the MP3 player market mostly to itself and boasted over 80% market share at Christmas 2004.”

Already in 2004 there were music phones. Apple had sold about 30 million iPods. So according to his logic, they already had 0% marketshare and it’s gone up since. His argument is based on an absurd drop off.

That’s the first thing he says non ad hominem; surprising because in his comments he said he was going to reply to each of us individually, not mock us.

Have I passed his level of intelligence yet, Scobie? Do I need to break it down line for line, or are you going to continue to claim this guy is brilliant? That I’m an idiot because I called you on your idiocy as soon as you posted?

You decide?

>Already in 2004 there were music phones.

Huh? Where? I have the bleeding edge phones from Nokia and HTC. It wasn’t until the past few months that I got phones with hard drives built in. You might have called something earlier a music phone, but my definition is something that has more than a gig of memory. Let’s just stop there, OK, and decide to disagree. You think I’m an idiot. That’s OK. I am. Just proving it will just waste your time. In the meantime my readers can see you think I’m an idiot, go and check out what I linked to, and decide for themselves.

>Already in 2004 there were music phones.

Huh? Where? I have the bleeding edge phones from Nokia and HTC. It wasn’t until the past few months that I got phones with hard drives built in. You might have called something earlier a music phone, but my definition is something that has more than a gig of memory. Let’s just stop there, OK, and decide to disagree. You think I’m an idiot. That’s OK. I am. Just proving it will just waste your time. In the meantime my readers can see you think I’m an idiot, go and check out what I linked to, and decide for themselves.

“Why are Canon and Nikon only reporting 30% and 20% growth? If there was any strong market for cameras, they would pick up all of Minolta-Konica’s customers (and be up at least 50%).”

Because even if M-K are leaving the biz, they are still currently in it. DUH.

“Why are Canon and Nikon only reporting 30% and 20% growth? If there was any strong market for cameras, they would pick up all of Minolta-Konica’s customers (and be up at least 50%).”

Because even if M-K are leaving the biz, they are still currently in it. DUH.

“Let’s just stop there, OK, and decide to disagree.”

No, you started the conversation. You can run, but I’m not leaving.

“It wasn’t until the past few months that I got phones with hard drives built in. You might have called something earlier a music phone, but my definition is something that has more than a gig of memory.”

So according to you, his argument is invalid, he is counting any and all phones that can play music; he’s not concerned with capacity.

“Just proving it will just waste your time. In the meantime my readers can see you think I’m an idiot, go and check out what I linked to, and decide for themselves.”

I just want you to quote anything in that drivel that you think is excellent; actually attach yourself to what you actually said. You haven’t yet.

Once I show how retarded that is, I’ll leave you alone.

“Let’s just stop there, OK, and decide to disagree.”

No, you started the conversation. You can run, but I’m not leaving.

“It wasn’t until the past few months that I got phones with hard drives built in. You might have called something earlier a music phone, but my definition is something that has more than a gig of memory.”

So according to you, his argument is invalid, he is counting any and all phones that can play music; he’s not concerned with capacity.

“Just proving it will just waste your time. In the meantime my readers can see you think I’m an idiot, go and check out what I linked to, and decide for themselves.”

I just want you to quote anything in that drivel that you think is excellent; actually attach yourself to what you actually said. You haven’t yet.

Once I show how retarded that is, I’ll leave you alone.

Sorry Scoble, for starters, I believe that cell-phones will eat into the iPods marketshare the day you can keep your phone from dying because you left it playing music.

That happens on my iPod, eh, I could care less, because my iPod (or any music player) is relatively unimportant in my day-to-day business.

Unlike my cellphone, which is basically critical to said business.

As for the random question, I note that he asked “who is carrying”, not “who owns”. What would he have heard if he’d asked about a laptop? I may carry my cellphone into a conference, I wouldn’t necessarily have my iPod.

Besides, of COURSE the iPod is going to “decline”, they have almost the whole market. Nowhere to go but down really. Apple knows that at least as well as anyone else. (Hello “Walkman”!)

Is it going to be music-playing cellphones that do it? I doubt it, at least not for another few years, before various issues can be worked out for phones to be much of a contender, IMHO.

Sorry Scoble, for starters, I believe that cell-phones will eat into the iPods marketshare the day you can keep your phone from dying because you left it playing music.

That happens on my iPod, eh, I could care less, because my iPod (or any music player) is relatively unimportant in my day-to-day business.

Unlike my cellphone, which is basically critical to said business.

As for the random question, I note that he asked “who is carrying”, not “who owns”. What would he have heard if he’d asked about a laptop? I may carry my cellphone into a conference, I wouldn’t necessarily have my iPod.

Besides, of COURSE the iPod is going to “decline”, they have almost the whole market. Nowhere to go but down really. Apple knows that at least as well as anyone else. (Hello “Walkman”!)

Is it going to be music-playing cellphones that do it? I doubt it, at least not for another few years, before various issues can be worked out for phones to be much of a contender, IMHO.

>I just want you to quote anything in that drivel that you think is excellent; actually attach yourself to what you actually said. You haven’t yet.

I thought the whole thing was excellent. It made a point that other people hadn’t. I haven’t gotten into a point-by-point dissection of it because it wasn’t excellent for any single line, but the package together.

But, glad you’ll be here to call me retarded. I bow down to your superior intellect! That’s excellent too!

>I just want you to quote anything in that drivel that you think is excellent; actually attach yourself to what you actually said. You haven’t yet.

I thought the whole thing was excellent. It made a point that other people hadn’t. I haven’t gotten into a point-by-point dissection of it because it wasn’t excellent for any single line, but the package together.

But, glad you’ll be here to call me retarded. I bow down to your superior intellect! That’s excellent too!

Aw, you run away like Dvorak and Thurott do. “None of it’s excellent, I can’t point to anything, but it’s all brilliant.”

“It made a point that other people hadn’t.”

Actually he made the point a year ago, that it would already be over this spring: that’s how brilliant his predictions are: half of his citations are to himself in a post where he’s already wrong.

Aw, you run away like Dvorak and Thurott do. “None of it’s excellent, I can’t point to anything, but it’s all brilliant.”

“It made a point that other people hadn’t.”

Actually he made the point a year ago, that it would already be over this spring: that’s how brilliant his predictions are: half of his citations are to himself in a post where he’s already wrong.

Let’s just work over the title to end the night:

“iPod market share crashes to 14% amid management denials”

1. Crashes? Even if you accept his absurd numbers, they don’t crash. Apple would never have had more than 30% of the market or so since 2004 and it would have plummetted drastically in 2005 and been 14% since. He starts his numbers up post-earnings to get a thrill out of people like Scoble and Thurott.

2. Management Denials? Apple always uses their marketshare data appropriately. They say US when its US; they say worldwide when its worldwide. They cite their sources. And their sources are the leading statistical gathering firms in the world. These firms are the ones who define the product category.

No one shouted out in the conference call: “You lie: phones have overtaken you” to which Oppenheimer said: “No, no, it’s not true.”

It came up once (the guy was fishing and Oppie gladly played into it), and what transpired was: “How do you feel about the competition posed by phones” (paraphrased) And the response was: “We don’t think they’re there yet, it doesn’t affect our plans, we aren’t standing still.” No Denial.

I think that’s enough absurdity in 9 words for one night.

Let’s just work over the title to end the night:

“iPod market share crashes to 14% amid management denials”

1. Crashes? Even if you accept his absurd numbers, they don’t crash. Apple would never have had more than 30% of the market or so since 2004 and it would have plummetted drastically in 2005 and been 14% since. He starts his numbers up post-earnings to get a thrill out of people like Scoble and Thurott.

2. Management Denials? Apple always uses their marketshare data appropriately. They say US when its US; they say worldwide when its worldwide. They cite their sources. And their sources are the leading statistical gathering firms in the world. These firms are the ones who define the product category.

No one shouted out in the conference call: “You lie: phones have overtaken you” to which Oppenheimer said: “No, no, it’s not true.”

It came up once (the guy was fishing and Oppie gladly played into it), and what transpired was: “How do you feel about the competition posed by phones” (paraphrased) And the response was: “We don’t think they’re there yet, it doesn’t affect our plans, we aren’t standing still.” No Denial.

I think that’s enough absurdity in 9 words for one night.

Goebbels (Appropriate moniker) and Spongechum hang your heads in shame for your needless vitriol.

Check out W. Ian Blanton for a measured tone.

Robert don’t respond to such comments - it’s a waste of effort.

My point of view is that in an ideal world we would all have a single device but only if it it could do everything well.

The problem is that there are functional priorities that see Phone at the top of the list and music down the bottom with battery life being the key to it all.

I would suggest that Apple are already looking at such a device.

Goebbels (Appropriate moniker) and Spongechum hang your heads in shame for your needless vitriol.

Check out W. Ian Blanton for a measured tone.

Robert don’t respond to such comments - it’s a waste of effort.

My point of view is that in an ideal world we would all have a single device but only if it it could do everything well.

The problem is that there are functional priorities that see Phone at the top of the list and music down the bottom with battery life being the key to it all.

I would suggest that Apple are already looking at such a device.

If cellphones are going to take away the iPod marketshare, it could be due to the iPhone

Apple has been quiet for awhile on the iPod front. When was the last update? The last special event introduced the boombox.
If Apple’s sale is down, it isn’t because the competition has done anything. Its apple’s own doing.

I’d rather guess immediately after I see a product launch than take one before one.

I would be interested in seeing what the Zune will turn out to be.

If cellphones are going to take away the iPod marketshare, it could be due to the iPhone

Apple has been quiet for awhile on the iPod front. When was the last update? The last special event introduced the boombox.
If Apple’s sale is down, it isn’t because the competition has done anything. Its apple’s own doing.

I’d rather guess immediately after I see a product launch than take one before one.

I would be interested in seeing what the Zune will turn out to be.

Apple vs. Microsoft… blah blah blah… just compare the number of machines using some soft of MS OS.. vs How many people in the world use OS X. Yes, Apple has a nice GUI, but if they’re SOOO much better.. why do they let you run Windows on their machines??? Answer: Apple’s only good at a few things. It’s been this way for years. You have to have Windows on a Mac so it can run 90% of the things it couldn’t do before. I have a OS X rig, and let me tell you.. it does crash.. I have to reboot… I have to download updates. How is this SOOOO much different/better than Windows? I’m not a “fanboy” of either side. Just so you savages know! (each OS has it’s advantages)

Apple vs. Microsoft… blah blah blah… just compare the number of machines using some soft of MS OS.. vs How many people in the world use OS X. Yes, Apple has a nice GUI, but if they’re SOOO much better.. why do they let you run Windows on their machines??? Answer: Apple’s only good at a few things. It’s been this way for years. You have to have Windows on a Mac so it can run 90% of the things it couldn’t do before. I have a OS X rig, and let me tell you.. it does crash.. I have to reboot… I have to download updates. How is this SOOOO much different/better than Windows? I’m not a “fanboy” of either side. Just so you savages know! (each OS has it’s advantages)

“At Reboot last year someone asked the audience “who is carrying a cell phone?” Every hand went up. Then they asked “who is carrying an iPod?” Only one or two hands went up”

Another question, “Who listen mp3 on the phone?”. I guess it would be the same one or two people.

“At Reboot last year someone asked the audience “who is carrying a cell phone?” Every hand went up. Then they asked “who is carrying an iPod?” Only one or two hands went up”

Another question, “Who listen mp3 on the phone?”. I guess it would be the same one or two people.

“This time Tomi Ahonen says the same thing with a very long (but excellent) essay saying the iPod is on decline. Why? Because of cell phones eating into iPod’s market share.”

The starting premise is OK - unify several devices into one. How many times has this been done with success? Mmm… that’s hard to answer. Did MPV/SUV/? do it for the car industry combining car/bus/truck? What about all-in-one media centers? Help me, I’m running out of solutions!

And cell phones do have a useless UI for the most part - I like Sony Ericsson, my wife hates it but likes Siemens, and we both loath Motorola and Nokia. The gulf between the average cell phone UI and that of the iPod is sooo great why would I want to mix the two?

Apple clearly thinks that some of the technology challenges can be overcome to make the cell phone more of a genuine universal device - battery life is getting better, touch-screens getting cheaper, solid state memory in large capacities getting small and cheap enough, and high performance wi-fi becoming slowly ubiquitous. None of this is quite ready for showtime but in 2 years?

I’m hoping that Apple can bring some of its UI-savvy to the cell phone when it decides that convergence is ripe.

“This time Tomi Ahonen says the same thing with a very long (but excellent) essay saying the iPod is on decline. Why? Because of cell phones eating into iPod’s market share.”

The starting premise is OK - unify several devices into one. How many times has this been done with success? Mmm… that’s hard to answer. Did MPV/SUV/? do it for the car industry combining car/bus/truck? What about all-in-one media centers? Help me, I’m running out of solutions!

And cell phones do have a useless UI for the most part - I like Sony Ericsson, my wife hates it but likes Siemens, and we both loath Motorola and Nokia. The gulf between the average cell phone UI and that of the iPod is sooo great why would I want to mix the two?

Apple clearly thinks that some of the technology challenges can be overcome to make the cell phone more of a genuine universal device - battery life is getting better, touch-screens getting cheaper, solid state memory in large capacities getting small and cheap enough, and high performance wi-fi becoming slowly ubiquitous. None of this is quite ready for showtime but in 2 years?

I’m hoping that Apple can bring some of its UI-savvy to the cell phone when it decides that convergence is ripe.

Hi Robert and visitors to the Scobleizer blog

First, thank you Robert very much for the kind words. Coming from you as one of our gurus to the connected age - and you know we quote you in our book - that means exceptionally much to me (and Alan Moore, also a big fan of yours)

Now for all here - I am that “culprit” who launched that “assault” on Apple? that original posting on iPod real global market share being only 14% today, and the enormous decline from 80% in 2004 has been due to the sudden emergence of the big five mobile phone makers launching musicphones.

I don’t need to revisit the blog here - you can go read it. But I’ll comment on a few of the postings here.

We were hit by a wave of Apple fanatics. We normally get about 300 visitors per day, yesterday we had 3000. Almost all of them from two Mac sites. And you can guess from the heated pro-Apple comments here, that almost all of the comments at our site were against us, ranging from the very intelligent analysis of facts to the “you are idiots” I replied to the first 32 of them and will respond to all.

Goebbels. You say - try to read his “books” with books in quotes, as if they were not books? My first publisher, John Wiley & Sons, is the world’s largest publisher of technical books. All of my three Wiley books are hardcover editions, one also translated into Chinese, and another already into its second printing. All available at all major bookstores around the world? My second publisher is Futuretext, a niche publisher of future-oriented books in techology. Its book is also already into its second printing and being translated into Korean, German, Russian and Japanese. Why would you put my “books” in quotes? The British Chartered Institute of Marketing (the UK equivalent to the American Marketing Association) selected the book as one of the five best marketing books of last year. What do you mean “books”?

I’ll be happy to send you the first chapter and the foreword by the Chief Marketing Officer of Coca Cola, so you can sample the book - (and anyone else who wants it) - send an e-mail to me at tomi at tomiahonen com - insert dots and @ sign where appropriate. I will send you the pdf (of the first chapter. I am not allowed to send you the full book ha ha, only my publisher does that)

Ken B - the value system - you are very correct. In America this is totally backwaters. In South Korea already 45% of all music sold - not online music mind you, all music - is sold to mobile phones. The eco system is exactly that. The whole music industry is involved, the revenue-sharing is fair, and everybody gains.

Spongechum - you found the key. South Korea and Japan are a year ahead of Europe, itself a year ahead of the USA on this.

in general about “say something about Apple and the idiots show up” - I would tend to agree. In a year and a half of active blogging (my co-author has been at it much longer, I’m a relative newcomer to the blogosphere) we’ve never had the “you’re morons” argumentation except if its a posting about Apple. I don’t mind the logical reasoned comments, but yes, only on Apple topics have we received any “you’re idiots” arguments. We love Apple, we say so regularly, but still we’re the idiots.. There is a “trained dog” syndrome here. Some of the people at my site openly admitted they had not read the blog, they just joined into the comments. Thats sad.

Goebbels - on the 2004 and 80% point. I think you’ve misunderstood - and I am fully willing to take the blame for that. I was not clear enough. Lets try really simply.

In 2001-2002 no musicphones. Its Apple vs MP3 makers
in 2003 musicphones appear, in South Korea. Apple still massive, gaining on its smaller MP3 rivals
in 2004 Apple achieves its peak in terms of market share. Apple ships 8 million iPods and claims 80% market share. Still the big phone makers ignore the musicphone market as trivial

In 2005 phone makers wake up. They all announce musicphones. By the end of the year they have shipped 90 million. Out of a total market of 119.5 million pocketable MP3 players sold in 2005, Apple’s 22.5 million iPods have a share of 18.8%

Now first half of 2006. For every iPod sold, the phone makers sell six. Apple’s market share is 14% and dropping.

I hope it was clear enough. No hot air, no missing numbers. All Apple numbers from Apple. All musicphone numbers from IDC/Informa the official source for the phone industry. Gartner, the other who counts phones worldwide has almost identical numbers. (Gartner usually a bit upside and IDC a bit downside, which is why I like IDC numbers more, they sound more realistic to me)

W. Ian Blanton - I hope you listened to Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer two days ago, when he clearly stated musicphones are already a threat and that Apple will release its own musicphone. Perhaps you could trust Apple’s own top management on this?

Tony - I have dozens of examples of when this happened. Lets take them from just around you. Are you accessing the web on an (Apple) laptop? So your screen? It was once a separate device - CPU and display unit. The modem? Back in the early 1990s all modems were separate stand-alone devices - I was there selling them in New York when the internet suddenly emerged on the cover of Time Magazine now they are all inbuilt. So lets move to your camcorder? In 1985 all portable video cameras had SEPARATE video recorder units and cameras. The VCR unit was slung on the shoulder and connected by cable. How about your kids boom box? It has a tape player and CD player and radio? when CD players came in the mid 1980s, they were separate units. The boom box radio and tape deck? in the late 1960s when Philips converted the dictation machine media C-Cassette to a music device, they also introduce the radical concept of the radiorecorder. Still in 1974 the majority of cassette recorders were STAND-ALONE devices.

No, we don’t have the combination submarine-airplane, but when its logical, devices do converge. I have dozens of examples more…

Thanks Robert for posting the comments (and your patient replies here).

Tomi Ahonen

Hi Robert and visitors to the Scobleizer blog

First, thank you Robert very much for the kind words. Coming from you as one of our gurus to the connected age - and you know we quote you in our book - that means exceptionally much to me (and Alan Moore, also a big fan of yours)

Now for all here - I am that “culprit” who launched that “assault” on Apple? that original posting on iPod real global market share being only 14% today, and the enormous decline from 80% in 2004 has been due to the sudden emergence of the big five mobile phone makers launching musicphones.

I don’t need to revisit the blog here - you can go read it. But I’ll comment on a few of the postings here.

We were hit by a wave of Apple fanatics. We normally get about 300 visitors per day, yesterday we had 3000. Almost all of them from two Mac sites. And you can guess from the heated pro-Apple comments here, that almost all of the comments at our site were against us, ranging from the very intelligent analysis of facts to the “you are idiots” I replied to the first 32 of them and will respond to all.

Goebbels. You say - try to read his “books” with books in quotes, as if they were not books? My first publisher, John Wiley & Sons, is the world’s largest publisher of technical books. All of my three Wiley books are hardcover editions, one also translated into Chinese, and another already into its second printing. All available at all major bookstores around the world? My second publisher is Futuretext, a niche publisher of future-oriented books in techology. Its book is also already into its second printing and being translated into Korean, German, Russian and Japanese. Why would you put my “books” in quotes? The British Chartered Institute of Marketing (the UK equivalent to the American Marketing Association) selected the book as one of the five best marketing books of last year. What do you mean “books”?

I’ll be happy to send you the first chapter and the foreword by the Chief Marketing Officer of Coca Cola, so you can sample the book - (and anyone else who wants it) - send an e-mail to me at tomi at tomiahonen com - insert dots and @ sign where appropriate. I will send you the pdf (of the first chapter. I am not allowed to send you the full book ha ha, only my publisher does that)

Ken B - the value system - you are very correct. In America this is totally backwaters. In South Korea already 45% of all music sold - not online music mind you, all music - is sold to mobile phones. The eco system is exactly that. The whole music industry is involved, the revenue-sharing is fair, and everybody gains.

Spongechum - you found the key. South Korea and Japan are a year ahead of Europe, itself a year ahead of the USA on this.

in general about “say something about Apple and the idiots show up” - I would tend to agree. In a year and a half of active blogging (my co-author has been at it much longer, I’m a relative newcomer to the blogosphere) we’ve never had the “you’re morons” argumentation except if its a posting about Apple. I don’t mind the logical reasoned comments, but yes, only on Apple topics have we received any “you’re idiots” arguments. We love Apple, we say so regularly, but still we’re the idiots.. There is a “trained dog” syndrome here. Some of the people at my site openly admitted they had not read the blog, they just joined into the comments. Thats sad.

Goebbels - on the 2004 and 80% point. I think you’ve misunderstood - and I am fully willing to take the blame for that. I was not clear enough. Lets try really simply.

In 2001-2002 no musicphones. Its Apple vs MP3 makers
in 2003 musicphones appear, in South Korea. Apple still massive, gaining on its smaller MP3 rivals
in 2004 Apple achieves its peak in terms of market share. Apple ships 8 million iPods and claims 80% market share. Still the big phone makers ignore the musicphone market as trivial

In 2005 phone makers wake up. They all announce musicphones. By the end of the year they have shipped 90 million. Out of a total market of 119.5 million pocketable MP3 players sold in 2005, Apple’s 22.5 million iPods have a share of 18.8%

Now first half of 2006. For every iPod sold, the phone makers sell six. Apple’s market share is 14% and dropping.

I hope it was clear enough. No hot air, no missing numbers. All Apple numbers from Apple. All musicphone numbers from IDC/Informa the official source for the phone industry. Gartner, the other who counts phones worldwide has almost identical numbers. (Gartner usually a bit upside and IDC a bit downside, which is why I like IDC numbers more, they sound more realistic to me)

W. Ian Blanton - I hope you listened to Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer two days ago, when he clearly stated musicphones are already a threat and that Apple will release its own musicphone. Perhaps you could trust Apple’s own top management on this?

Tony - I have dozens of examples of when this happened. Lets take them from just around you. Are you accessing the web on an (Apple) laptop? So your screen? It was once a separate device - CPU and display unit. The modem? Back in the early 1990s all modems were separate stand-alone devices - I was there selling them in New York when the internet suddenly emerged on the cover of Time Magazine now they are all inbuilt. So lets move to your camcorder? In 1985 all portable video cameras had SEPARATE video recorder units and cameras. The VCR unit was slung on the shoulder and connected by cable. How about your kids boom box? It has a tape player and CD player and radio? when CD players came in the mid 1980s, they were separate units. The boom box radio and tape deck? in the late 1960s when Philips converted the dictation machine media C-Cassette to a music device, they also introduce the radical concept of the radiorecorder. Still in 1974 the majority of cassette recorders were STAND-ALONE devices.

No, we don’t have the combination submarine-airplane, but when its logical, devices do converge. I have dozens of examples more…

Thanks Robert for posting the comments (and your patient replies here).

Tomi Ahonen

Apple is a survivor…

The new meme, in light of the $40 billion pay back, and Xbox drain and R&D bloodlet, and Vista delays…be Microsoft is dying.

Or in ‘party like it’s 1999′ Wired-style…

Apple Dead - Tired
Microsoft Dead - Wired

Apple is a survivor…

The new meme, in light of the $40 billion pay back, and Xbox drain and R&D bloodlet, and Vista delays…be Microsoft is dying.

Or in ‘party like it’s 1999′ Wired-style…

Apple Dead - Tired
Microsoft Dead - Wired

Until recently, I did think phones were going to kick iPod’s ass but my experience with my Nokia N70 proved that the phone makers have a looooong way to go.

The music player on the N70 is utter rubbish, it looks like it was slapped together in a few weeks by an intern. Any of the third party ones I have tried have a UI designed for non-humans.

I have to buy an adapter for the phone to use normal headphones and the cover on the MMC Card slot looks like it cost 0.005c to make and will be broken in no time.

These are simple simple things that Nokia just refuses to get right and until they do, they have no hope against Apple.

Having said that, I think Sony-Ericsson may be on the right track with the Walkman phones.

Until recently, I did think phones were going to kick iPod’s ass but my experience with my Nokia N70 proved that the phone makers have a looooong way to go.

The music player on the N70 is utter rubbish, it looks like it was slapped together in a few weeks by an intern. Any of the third party ones I have tried have a UI designed for non-humans.

I have to buy an adapter for the phone to use normal headphones and the cover on the MMC Card slot looks like it cost 0.005c to make and will be broken in no time.

These are simple simple things that Nokia just refuses to get right and until they do, they have no hope against Apple.

Having said that, I think Sony-Ericsson may be on the right track with the Walkman phones.

Tomi Ahonen says: “I have dozens of examples of when this happened. Lets take them from just around you.”

The problem I have as is that all these examples and others are actually transfers from business to consumer usage. And it is this that drove change. However today the market is for new products specifically for consumers not derived from business products. Modems were/are one trick ponies so were analogue camcorders.

My kids boom boxes? iPods. My kids cell phones - used too much as phones to make it as music devices.

Some cross-over is likely - will it be digital camcorders that subsume digital cameras or vice versa? But universal devices? I remember Apple touting the Scully dream machine - the Navigator, anyone remember that? The ultimate in wireless universal devices. Are we much nearer in getting there than 15 years ago? Not much.

So excuse my scepticism but 40 years in IT has cured me of the industry’s eternal optimism.

Tomi Ahonen says: “I have dozens of examples of when this happened. Lets take them from just around you.”

The problem I have as is that all these examples and others are actually transfers from business to consumer usage. And it is this that drove change. However today the market is for new products specifically for consumers not derived from business products. Modems were/are one trick ponies so were analogue camcorders.

My kids boom boxes? iPods. My kids cell phones - used too much as phones to make it as music devices.

Some cross-over is likely - will it be digital camcorders that subsume digital cameras or vice versa? But universal devices? I remember Apple touting the Scully dream machine - the Navigator, anyone remember that? The ultimate in wireless universal devices. Are we much nearer in getting there than 15 years ago? Not much.

So excuse my scepticism but 40 years in IT has cured me of the industry’s eternal optimism.

I remember grad school orientation in 1996 when the school’s IT guy was advising students on computer options. He recommended Macs and the audience reacted as if he were suggesting we book passage on the Titanic.

I remember grad school orientation in 1996 when the school’s IT guy was advising students on computer options. He recommended Macs and the audience reacted as if he were suggesting we book passage on the Titanic.

UI design has a ways to go for mobile phones, but their biggest hurdle which will not be overcome in a while is battery life.

Transmission to base stations take up too much power. Music is very secondary. For those that actually carry music players, you would want the full 8 hours of play time for a work-day/commute etc. Phones just don’t have that kind of power due to it’s actual use.

And Rob knows who I work for. heh. I suppose if you’re just the occasional music listener, then you won’t need a player device (iPod, whatever Creative has these days, etc).. For those of us that keep their whole life’s worth of music on a device? I’m still waiting for fuel-cells or cold fusion. Until mobile devices have better power, having all-in-one devices are utter wastes of time.

UI design has a ways to go for mobile phones, but their biggest hurdle which will not be overcome in a while is battery life.

Transmission to base stations take up too much power. Music is very secondary. For those that actually carry music players, you would want the full 8 hours of play time for a work-day/commute etc. Phones just don’t have that kind of power due to it’s actual use.

And Rob knows who I work for. heh. I suppose if you’re just the occasional music listener, then you won’t need a player device (iPod, whatever Creative has these days, etc).. For those of us that keep their whole life’s worth of music on a device? I’m still waiting for fuel-cells or cold fusion. Until mobile devices have better power, having all-in-one devices are utter wastes of time.

“Until mobile devices have better power, having all-in-one devices are utter wastes of time”
Couldn’t agree more. I’m not about to waste my cell power on music, the phone is too critical. So, until battery tech gets much better this whole convergence thing is a mute point in my opinion. And, Apple isn’t/won’t be standing still, I would fully expect an iPod phone with a great UI once there is power to support it.

“Until mobile devices have better power, having all-in-one devices are utter wastes of time”
Couldn’t agree more. I’m not about to waste my cell power on music, the phone is too critical. So, until battery tech gets much better this whole convergence thing is a mute point in my opinion. And, Apple isn’t/won’t be standing still, I would fully expect an iPod phone with a great UI once there is power to support it.

>> Goebbels: the whole thing is more intelligent than anything you’ve said since.

The greatest hurdle to overcome

There are always articles that come out with how Apple’s iPod regime is on its way down. It’s been happening since they came out with the portable music beast that has conquered the majority of civilized society. Creative and other…

>> Goebbels: the whole thing is more intelligent than anything you’ve said since.

technically cell phones have all the parts - some now have a lot of flash, mp3 playback call capability. whats not to like?

firstly I have robert’s much beloved audiovox windows smart fone. as a phone? awesome. it has media play - hmm. i could play mp3′s on this. so i upgraded the ram to 512mb mini SD. dumped a bunch of songs on it ranging from 128k to 320k songs. hit play and the speaker from the fone is aweful. I have gotten better sound from real audio or my kid’s speak n spell. so no speaker playback. i can deal with that.

headphones will be so much better? nope. most cell phones do not standard headphone jacks - meaning I cant use a better class of headphones: no sony, no senheiser, no klipsch headphones - things that make my ipod better. audiovox? better luck next model….

i have to use that stoopid audiovox “call” headphone that plugs in . if you dont buy the right one, cell headphone is mono - the executive set gives you stereo - no stereo music?!?!? WTF. secondly you cant move the condensor microphone out of the way.its in a “fixed” position so its always blopping against my face. on a redeye flight with the gentle rocking of the plane this transformed a gentle music cruise through the night from LA to toronto into something annoying to be polite.

secondly the playback management is shall we say “lacking”. media player isnt in the same league at ipod. playlist, cueing, adjusting the equalizer. its not funny. mobile media player? even less. you got volume control and thats about it. and dont even get me started on track position saving. the most underrated feature of the ipod is the ability for it to remember where it was when it was last in playback - think audio books or PODCASTS. stop, come back and its right where you left it. i mean right at the last single syllable that scoble muttered into the mic. moble media player? nope. and on long tracks the discreet positioning is used. and it only gets you so close to where you where as each pixel on the screen represents so many minutes of playback. i can get close but not exact. do you really want to listen to the same 7-8 minutes of the track again because the overall audio book is 2.5 hours. assuming you can manually get “close”?

I finally close with this. if creative and iriver cant seem to make a dent in ipod. what makes you think phone companies can? Mp3 isnt even the prime objective of the device - mp3 playback is an afterthought. possibly even just a feature snuck into the firmware or something that came with the DSP chipset.

technically cell phones have all the parts - some now have a lot of flash, mp3 playback call capability. whats not to like?

firstly I have robert’s much beloved audiovox windows smart fone. as a phone? awesome. it has media play - hmm. i could play mp3′s on this. so i upgraded the ram to 512mb mini SD. dumped a bunch of songs on it ranging from 128k to 320k songs. hit play and the speaker from the fone is aweful. I have gotten better sound from real audio or my kid’s speak n spell. so no speaker playback. i can deal with that.

headphones will be so much better? nope. most cell phones do not standard headphone jacks - meaning I cant use a better class of headphones: no sony, no senheiser, no klipsch headphones - things that make my ipod better. audiovox? better luck next model….

i have to use that stoopid audiovox “call” headphone that plugs in . if you dont buy the right one, cell headphone is mono - the executive set gives you stereo - no stereo music?!?!? WTF. secondly you cant move the condensor microphone out of the way.its in a “fixed” position so its always blopping against my face. on a redeye flight with the gentle rocking of the plane this transformed a gentle music cruise through the night from LA to toronto into something annoying to be polite.

secondly the playback management is shall we say “lacking”. media player isnt in the same league at ipod. playlist, cueing, adjusting the equalizer. its not funny. mobile media player? even less. you got volume control and thats about it. and dont even get me started on track position saving. the most underrated feature of the ipod is the ability for it to remember where it was when it was last in playback - think audio books or PODCASTS. stop, come back and its right where you left it. i mean right at the last single syllable that scoble muttered into the mic. moble media player? nope. and on long tracks the discreet positioning is used. and it only gets you so close to where you where as each pixel on the screen represents so many minutes of playback. i can get close but not exact. do you really want to listen to the same 7-8 minutes of the track again because the overall audio book is 2.5 hours. assuming you can manually get “close”?

I finally close with this. if creative and iriver cant seem to make a dent in ipod. what makes you think phone companies can? Mp3 isnt even the prime objective of the device - mp3 playback is an afterthought. possibly even just a feature snuck into the firmware or something that came with the DSP chipset.

The title of that article is misleading. The iPod’s marketshare isn’t now 14% total, it was 14% THIS QUARTER. And that’s actually not too surprising: the current model has been out for a long time. When Apple introduces its next generation, expect that number to be different.

And the percentage figure is misleading. Including cellphones in the MP3 player catagory would be like claiming Office’s market share crashed after it was discovered that hundreds of millions of people have Notepad installed on their machines. 48 million MP3 playing musicphones, 8 million iPods, and 2 million non-Apple brand stand-alone MP3 players: Apple is still kicking ass in the standalone catagory.

The title of that article is misleading. The iPod’s marketshare isn’t now 14% total, it was 14% THIS QUARTER. And that’s actually not too surprising: the current model has been out for a long time. When Apple introduces its next generation, expect that number to be different.

And the percentage figure is misleading. Including cellphones in the MP3 player catagory would be like claiming Office’s market share crashed after it was discovered that hundreds of millions of people have Notepad installed on their machines. 48 million MP3 playing musicphones, 8 million iPods, and 2 million non-Apple brand stand-alone MP3 players: Apple is still kicking ass in the standalone catagory.

Speaking of conference calls:

From Apple conference call last Wednesday -

Peter Oppenheimer (Apple CFO): “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

The biggest mistake Apple’s competitors are making is thinking that Apple will repeat its late 80′s/early 90′s Mac mistakes. Remember that Jobs already predicted that MS would have to come out with their own DAP to compete with the iPod, and from the rumors, it appears that is happening. Also remember that Apple is a company that killed its best-selling iPod mini to make room for the nano - they have no problem in killing a cash cow to make room for a *bigger* cash cow. Does anyone *really* think that Apple is going to get caught flat-footed this time around?

Now Yahoo’s move yesterday could make things interesting, at least for those who think the iPod’s success is tied to the iTMS.

http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/06/10/john-dvorak-explains-how-he-tweaks-mac-users-for-traffic/

The problem is that the author of study includes mobile phones in his definition of “MP3 player.” There are many more mobile phones than iPods. So, according to his logic, iPods only constitute 14% of MP3 players.

That’s an interesting strategy, to call a mobile phone an “MP3 player” device. Most people would simply call it a “mobile phone” that happens to have as one of its features, the ability to play MP3s. Its primary function is placing telephone calls. Tomi Ahonen, however, has included mobile phones in his definition, not because people purchase phones with the primary intent of playing music, but rather because phones are capable of playing music. Interesting.

Let’s take a hit off the author’s crack pipe, shall we?

Hmmm. You know, now that I think of it, there are other devices that play MP3s. Sure, mobile phones play MP3s, but some PDAs do as well. So let us factor in PDA sales.

[author takes hits off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles numbers on paper]

Interesting. By including PDAs, we can now clearly see that the iPod market share has crashed to 9% of the MP3 player market.

But why stop there?

[author takes another hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles more numbers]

By including laptop computers, which play MP3s, we can now see that the iPod market share has crashed to 1.7% of the MP3 player market! This is amazing! Why does Apple management continue to deny that there’s a problem? Why doesn’t the mainstream media cover this? Could it be some kind of conspiracy?

[author takes hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles figures with Ahonen's crayon]

Oh my God! I’ve just factored in DESKTOP PCs. They play MP3s too. And iPod market share has now crashed to 0.00002%! What a scandal! At this rate, they’ll be out of business before next Tuesday! Someone should alert the media. Clearly, Apple is doomed. Clearly, Ahonen was right when he predicted that the iPod would die in the year 2006.

[author takes hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, begins to scribble letters and abstract shapes]

Wow… hey, did you know that if you rearrange the letters in in “Tomi T. Ahonen,” it spells “John C. Dvorak?” Coooool…

[author's head slumps onto desk]

http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/06/10/john-dvorak-explains-how-he-tweaks-mac-users-for-traffic/

The problem is that the author of study includes mobile phones in his definition of “MP3 player.” There are many more mobile phones than iPods. So, according to his logic, iPods only constitute 14% of MP3 players.

That’s an interesting strategy, to call a mobile phone an “MP3 player” device. Most people would simply call it a “mobile phone” that happens to have as one of its features, the ability to play MP3s. Its primary function is placing telephone calls. Tomi Ahonen, however, has included mobile phones in his definition, not because people purchase phones with the primary intent of playing music, but rather because phones are capable of playing music. Interesting.

Let’s take a hit off the author’s crack pipe, shall we?

Hmmm. You know, now that I think of it, there are other devices that play MP3s. Sure, mobile phones play MP3s, but some PDAs do as well. So let us factor in PDA sales.

[author takes hits off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles numbers on paper]

Interesting. By including PDAs, we can now clearly see that the iPod market share has crashed to 9% of the MP3 player market.

But why stop there?

[author takes another hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles more numbers]

By including laptop computers, which play MP3s, we can now see that the iPod market share has crashed to 1.7% of the MP3 player market! This is amazing! Why does Apple management continue to deny that there’s a problem? Why doesn’t the mainstream media cover this? Could it be some kind of conspiracy?

[author takes hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, scribbles figures with Ahonen's crayon]

Oh my God! I’ve just factored in DESKTOP PCs. They play MP3s too. And iPod market share has now crashed to 0.00002%! What a scandal! At this rate, they’ll be out of business before next Tuesday! Someone should alert the media. Clearly, Apple is doomed. Clearly, Ahonen was right when he predicted that the iPod would die in the year 2006.

[author takes hit off Ahonen's crack pipe, begins to scribble letters and abstract shapes]

Wow… hey, did you know that if you rearrange the letters in in “Tomi T. Ahonen,” it spells “John C. Dvorak?” Coooool…

[author's head slumps onto desk]

Speaking of conference calls:

From Apple conference call last Wednesday -

Peter Oppenheimer (Apple CFO): “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

The biggest mistake Apple’s competitors are making is thinking that Apple will repeat its late 80′s/early 90′s Mac mistakes. Remember that Jobs already predicted that MS would have to come out with their own DAP to compete with the iPod, and from the rumors, it appears that is happening. Also remember that Apple is a company that killed its best-selling iPod mini to make room for the nano - they have no problem in killing a cash cow to make room for a *bigger* cash cow. Does anyone *really* think that Apple is going to get caught flat-footed this time around?

Now Yahoo’s move yesterday could make things interesting, at least for those who think the iPod’s success is tied to the iTMS.

Maybe just a coincidence but…

In a tech get-together this weekend with 5 other people someone mentioned that they downloaded audio books from the library for free. (I guess there is a limit to how many you can have out at once or something, so there is some sort of DRM (evil) involved.

Well I have a Nano that I got at a discount when I bought my Powerbook, so I causally asked: “So, you download them to your iPod?”. I was shocked by the answer: “Oh, no, it doesn’t work with those, I have a Rio.” but I was more shocked when every other member of the dinner party whipped out a Rio as well. For many people, even if they don’t play music on a cell phone, iPods are not even on the radar screen.

No I’m as much an Apple fan as the next guy, and no big fan of Microsoft, but if Apple has hitched their wagon to iPod and music sales they are in for a bumpy ride. They may do well, and they may lead the pack for a while, but ultimately margins on this equipment will be close to zero. Companies who actually make these things make hundreds of other electronic gadgets and they don’t really care which brand name they sell under, but the companies who’s names appear on the products are all hanging by a thread too. Can Apple make up for that by selling online music? Again, they have a nice lead, but Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL and many others are all chomping at their heels and won’t go away any time soon.

If Apple tries to replace their computer business with iTunes (and related hardware) they are crazy. How are Apple’s server sales going? And if they are not doing really well, why not? Apple doesn’t have nearly the lock-in that Microsoft has (and I’m against companies that rely on lock-ins anyway) but without them, you have to hit a home run every inning or so or get out of the major leagues. Apple had better have a new money maker in the pipeline because iPod and iTunes will naturally decline as the market commoditizes both related equipment and services.

With the switch to Intel, Apple has undifferentiated themselves for their old mainstream business. I paid a premium to get a PowerPC based laptop, but my next laptop, if it is a Core Duo, will just as likely be a Compaq or Dell, and now that I know about that library deal, I may replace my Nano with a Rio. For the most part I play my own ripped MP3s, so one device is as good as another for that and I hate all DRM files equally, so if I have to used something that is DRMed it might as well be on a Rio as an iPod.

Apple has carved a niche for itself (iTself?) by having products that are unique and well ahead of their time. What are they doing like that now? I don’t see it.

Maybe just a coincidence but…

In a tech get-together this weekend with 5 other people someone mentioned that they downloaded audio books from the library for free. (I guess there is a limit to how many you can have out at once or something, so there is some sort of DRM (evil) involved.

Well I have a Nano that I got at a discount when I bought my Powerbook, so I causally asked: “So, you download them to your iPod?”. I was shocked by the answer: “Oh, no, it doesn’t work with those, I have a Rio.” but I was more shocked when every other member of the dinner party whipped out a Rio as well. For many people, even if they don’t play music on a cell phone, iPods are not even on the radar screen.

No I’m as much an Apple fan as the next guy, and no big fan of Microsoft, but if Apple has hitched their wagon to iPod and music sales they are in for a bumpy ride. They may do well, and they may lead the pack for a while, but ultimately margins on this equipment will be close to zero. Companies who actually make these things make hundreds of other electronic gadgets and they don’t really care which brand name they sell under, but the companies who’s names appear on the products are all hanging by a thread too. Can Apple make up for that by selling online music? Again, they have a nice lead, but Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL and many others are all chomping at their heels and won’t go away any time soon.

If Apple tries to replace their computer business with iTunes (and related hardware) they are crazy. How are Apple’s server sales going? And if they are not doing really well, why not? Apple doesn’t have nearly the lock-in that Microsoft has (and I’m against companies that rely on lock-ins anyway) but without them, you have to hit a home run every inning or so or get out of the major leagues. Apple had better have a new money maker in the pipeline because iPod and iTunes will naturally decline as the market commoditizes both related equipment and services.

With the switch to Intel, Apple has undifferentiated themselves for their old mainstream business. I paid a premium to get a PowerPC based laptop, but my next laptop, if it is a Core Duo, will just as likely be a Compaq or Dell, and now that I know about that library deal, I may replace my Nano with a Rio. For the most part I play my own ripped MP3s, so one device is as good as another for that and I hate all DRM files equally, so if I have to used something that is DRMed it might as well be on a Rio as an iPod.

Apple has carved a niche for itself (iTself?) by having products that are unique and well ahead of their time. What are they doing like that now? I don’t see it.

Tomi, This is an utter misrepresentation of what Oppenheimer said at the conference call:

“W. Ian Blanton - I hope you listened to Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer two days ago, when he clearly stated musicphones are already a threat and that Apple will release its own musicphone. Perhaps you could trust Apple’s own top management on this?”

As pointed out by Herb above, Oppenheimer (Apple CFO) said: “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

For someone penning books, do you not see the difference, or are you making up stuff just to support your point of view? People call you a moron for a reason, because you are one and probably an outright liar too.

I have a Nokia camera phone that can also play some games and music, but the whole damn thing is so clumsy and ugly that it doesn’t even function properly as a phone, let alone as a camera or music player.

What you don’t appear to understand is that most of the phones are Microsoft-like bloated junks with useless features and but poor usability. They are heavily subsidized by the network, and practically given away to entice new customers and discarded quickly like old socks, while iPods are emotionally attached to users and last much longer. Apple has sold 50+ million iPods so far, and I bet most of them are being actively used. How many billions of cellphones are in the trash?

You are making a fool of yourself by spreading the silly 14% market share FUD, when everyone except you and a know Microsoft troll like Scoble know that iPod is far from dying.

Tomi, This is an utter misrepresentation of what Oppenheimer said at the conference call:

“W. Ian Blanton - I hope you listened to Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer two days ago, when he clearly stated musicphones are already a threat and that Apple will release its own musicphone. Perhaps you could trust Apple’s own top management on this?”

As pointed out by Herb above, Oppenheimer (Apple CFO) said: “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

For someone penning books, do you not see the difference, or are you making up stuff just to support your point of view? People call you a moron for a reason, because you are one and probably an outright liar too.

I have a Nokia camera phone that can also play some games and music, but the whole damn thing is so clumsy and ugly that it doesn’t even function properly as a phone, let alone as a camera or music player.

What you don’t appear to understand is that most of the phones are Microsoft-like bloated junks with useless features and but poor usability. They are heavily subsidized by the network, and practically given away to entice new customers and discarded quickly like old socks, while iPods are emotionally attached to users and last much longer. Apple has sold 50+ million iPods so far, and I bet most of them are being actively used. How many billions of cellphones are in the trash?

You are making a fool of yourself by spreading the silly 14% market share FUD, when everyone except you and a know Microsoft troll like Scoble know that iPod is far from dying.

Even if the iPod was dying, how does that constitute to Apple dying? Their computer sales have been the best ever in the company history.

Even if the iPod was dying, how does that constitute to Apple dying? Their computer sales have been the best ever in the company history.

Koreen: it’s the same thing as saying “Office is dead.”

Oh, and Goebbels, I have one thing to say: your comments are excellent!

Koreen: it’s the same thing as saying “Office is dead.”

Oh, and Goebbels, I have one thing to say: your comments are excellent!

I said Office was dead back in 95. Who knew that people would still like this Truetype font mumbo jumbo.

TEXT FILES. PICO. PINE. Booyah. And to this day, I still use those three.

Scary. Dvorak just flashed before my eyes. :p

I said Office was dead back in 95. Who knew that people would still like this Truetype font mumbo jumbo.

TEXT FILES. PICO. PINE. Booyah. And to this day, I still use those three.

Scary. Dvorak just flashed before my eyes. :p

[...] Microsoft Confirms Zune iPod Rival Microsoft today confirmed publicly for the first time Zune - a portable music and video player designed to compete against Apple’s iPod (or often referred to in the community as Microsoft’s “iPod Killer”). Microsoft comfirms the news with Billboard. You can read a snippet of the Billboard article here but to read the entire article requires you to log in. Microsoft’s Xbox division will be handling the development of Zune which is intended to be released later this year. Over at the Gamerscore Blog, Cesar Menendez posts he’s moving away from Xbox onto Zune development and has started up a new blog to follow Zune called the Zune Insider Blog. CNN is also reporting the news of Microsoft’s announcement - also hinting at rumors circulating on the net about J Allard’s involvement may also include a portable gaming system. J Allard is the mastermind behind the Xbox just in case you didn’t know. From what I’ve read and heard through the grapevine, I wouldn’t count it on being a portable gaming system to compete with Sony’s PSP. I think the intention and goal here is to create a really cool portable music and video device. I look forward to following the development of Zune up until release. From what it sounds like, it looks very promising. I am an extremely heavy user of URGE and used to be a iTunes Music Store user. I moved away from iTunes for URGE and am very happy with the move. But I will admit the hardware side to URGE hasn’t been the greatest. The iriver clix has been the closest thing to “wow” for URGE since it entered public Beta. I think adding a high end portable music device by Microsoft for Windows Media Player 11 and URGE will help URGE expand outward. On a sidenote: Robert Scoble brings up an interesting discussion on how the iPod is already on a decline - due to cell phones. Its certainly a very interesting discussion and I’m not quite sure what to think of it yet. I personally like having my cell phone and music player sepArated by the goal to create a device that allows the consumer not to have to carry more than one mobile device is something people are striving for. We’ll see. [...]

Wow, looks like everyone did the homework of responding FOR me. Thanks guys!

Tomi, I’m sure you’re busy getting bashed by over-zealous Mac-Macs, and several people have done me the courtesy of pulling out Mr. Openheimer’s actual quote, so I’ll try and keep this short.

As an adjunct, I NEVER trust any companies management. This is the same company that said (paraphrased) “Oh yeah, we’ll never do video on the iPod, no one would wanna do..WHOAH! We just released a video ipod and a TV download service!”

If you’re hitching your wagon wo what any at Apple SAYS instead of what they DO, well, you are in deeeep doo-doo.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I have a basic problem with some of the talk that Robert mentions;

I feel that you are manipulating data to fit your theory. I mean, when you asked your question that Robert references, why did you not ask “Who is carrying a cellphone that play’s music?”

Is it because a LOT fewer hands would have went up?

I could argue my case for neural implants surpassing cellphones using this kind of query. “Who here has neural tissue?” A-HA! Almost everyone does, so clearly cellphones are on their way down!

(caveat: readers of the future, I don’t doubt this will happen, but not ca. 2006 )

Again, I do not think that Apple is going to stay “king of the MP3 player” heap forever, but using ludicrous methods like changing the evaluations so as to improve the numbers. The iPod will not be competed against by changing the classification to anything with the characters “M”, “P” and “3″ in it, so as to lower their marketshare.

The iPod will be beaten by pricing and features. The same way the Sony Walkman went (an analogy I note you did not use in your list). If Apple is smart (and so far, they seem to be), they’re busy preparing for that day.

And to wrap it up, I just don’t see the phone beating out the dedicated music player until a lot of things happen, which many other people have pointed out: pretty much improvements across the board.

However, I will note ONE l’il tidbit: If power/recharging is an issue, who seems to be taking the lion’s share of in-car charging stations/audio interfaces? Would it be a fruit related company? Yes, clearly Banana Computers is poised to conquer the phone/music player market.

Wow, looks like everyone did the homework of responding FOR me. Thanks guys!

Tomi, I’m sure you’re busy getting bashed by over-zealous Mac-Macs, and several people have done me the courtesy of pulling out Mr. Openheimer’s actual quote, so I’ll try and keep this short.

As an adjunct, I NEVER trust any companies management. This is the same company that said (paraphrased) “Oh yeah, we’ll never do video on the iPod, no one would wanna do..WHOAH! We just released a video ipod and a TV download service!”

If you’re hitching your wagon wo what any at Apple SAYS instead of what they DO, well, you are in deeeep doo-doo.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I have a basic problem with some of the talk that Robert mentions;

I feel that you are manipulating data to fit your theory. I mean, when you asked your question that Robert references, why did you not ask “Who is carrying a cellphone that play’s music?”

Is it because a LOT fewer hands would have went up?

I could argue my case for neural implants surpassing cellphones using this kind of query. “Who here has neural tissue?” A-HA! Almost everyone does, so clearly cellphones are on their way down!

(caveat: readers of the future, I don’t doubt this will happen, but not ca. 2006 )

Again, I do not think that Apple is going to stay “king of the MP3 player” heap forever, but using ludicrous methods like changing the evaluations so as to improve the numbers. The iPod will not be competed against by changing the classification to anything with the characters “M”, “P” and “3″ in it, so as to lower their marketshare.

The iPod will be beaten by pricing and features. The same way the Sony Walkman went (an analogy I note you did not use in your list). If Apple is smart (and so far, they seem to be), they’re busy preparing for that day.

And to wrap it up, I just don’t see the phone beating out the dedicated music player until a lot of things happen, which many other people have pointed out: pretty much improvements across the board.

However, I will note ONE l’il tidbit: If power/recharging is an issue, who seems to be taking the lion’s share of in-car charging stations/audio interfaces? Would it be a fruit related company? Yes, clearly Banana Computers is poised to conquer the phone/music player market.

>> As an adjunct, I NEVER trust any companies management. This is the same company that said (paraphrased) “Oh yeah, we’ll never do video on the iPod, no one would wanna do..WHOAH! We just released a video ipod and a TV download service!”

Please backup your claim or stop making up shit like that!

You should know that Apple doesn’t pre-announce future products, unlike certain other company. Before the video iPod, Steve Jobs did belittle other video players on occasions, but I don’t recall he ever promised that Apple would NEVER do video.

>> As an adjunct, I NEVER trust any companies management. This is the same company that said (paraphrased) “Oh yeah, we’ll never do video on the iPod, no one would wanna do..WHOAH! We just released a video ipod and a TV download service!”

Please backup your claim or stop making up shit like that!

You should know that Apple doesn’t pre-announce future products, unlike certain other company. Before the video iPod, Steve Jobs did belittle other video players on occasions, but I don’t recall he ever promised that Apple would NEVER do video.

Cybereer; Lemme ‘splain the concept of a “joke” to you. Hell, go look up on Google: http://www.google.com. M’kay?

I paraphrased Apple as a whole. Do you know how to tell the difference between the word “company” and the words “Steven P. Jobs”? Do you honestly think I was trying attribute a quote to Steve Jobs where he said “Whoah! We just released a video and a TV download service!”? Yeeeesh.

And finally, in the interests of accuracy; Steve did NOT “belittle other video players”, he belittled the entire _idea_ of video on a handheld device from mid-late 2004 to late 2005, basically until just before Apple announced the iPod with video. And just as a parting gift I’ll leave you a quote:

“First, he said, on a video player, “there’s just no equivalent of headphones.” That is, when you put on headphones and press Play on a music player, the results are spectacular-you get a very close equivalent to the concert-hall experience. But watching video on a tiny three-inch hand-held screen is almost nothing like the experience of watching a movie in a theater or even on TV. It can’t approach the same realism or emotional impact.” Steve Jobs, January 2004.

Along with that, you get a case of RICE-A-RONI, the San Francisco treat, thanks for playing, you’ve been a great sport!

Cybereer; Lemme ‘splain the concept of a “joke” to you. Hell, go look up on Google: http://www.google.com. M’kay?

I paraphrased Apple as a whole. Do you know how to tell the difference between the word “company” and the words “Steven P. Jobs”? Do you honestly think I was trying attribute a quote to Steve Jobs where he said “Whoah! We just released a video and a TV download service!”? Yeeeesh.

And finally, in the interests of accuracy; Steve did NOT “belittle other video players”, he belittled the entire _idea_ of video on a handheld device from mid-late 2004 to late 2005, basically until just before Apple announced the iPod with video. And just as a parting gift I’ll leave you a quote:

“First, he said, on a video player, “there’s just no equivalent of headphones.” That is, when you put on headphones and press Play on a music player, the results are spectacular-you get a very close equivalent to the concert-hall experience. But watching video on a tiny three-inch hand-held screen is almost nothing like the experience of watching a movie in a theater or even on TV. It can’t approach the same realism or emotional impact.” Steve Jobs, January 2004.

Along with that, you get a case of RICE-A-RONI, the San Francisco treat, thanks for playing, you’ve been a great sport!

Hi all. I’ll come back (tomorrow) with full replies to you all. There are many very valid questions, concerns, doubts here that I really do want to reply to.

But let me leave you for now with some actual user data. In my blog I reported mostly only global numbers. I think in this discussion here, many are suggesting “it is not practical today” whether because of phones, or carriers, or whatever. That today, in 2006, it is not a valid customer selection choice, to select a musicphone over an iPod.

So lets examine a few markets individually. Japan. The world’s second largest music market by dollar value behind USA. In Japan last year the mobile music market was worth 211 Million dollars (source IFPI). Those familiar with Apple know iTunes in 2005 sold 400 million dollars worldwide. So in Japan alone music sold directly to mobile phones generated half the revenues of iTunes worldwide. Is it feasible today to have devices, music catalogs, service offerings, carrier marketing, etc to greatly succeed with actual, paid, downloads to mobile phones. Yes.

UK is the third largest music market. Today 27% of the 3G subscribers in Britain download music to phones (source Telephia). 3G subscribers are only 8% of Britains population (tied for fifth-best in the world) so that works out to only 2% of the total population. (I have only miscellaneous national stats. Of course the current 2G/2.5G phone owners also buy music in Britain, but I don’t have that statistic)

Once you get a 3G phone, it becomes a very good proposition to consume music. And before you pooh-pooh the 2% number, note these details. 3G was launched in Britain in 2003. So they have had it for 3 years. If we look at iPod penetration in the USA 3 years after the iPod launch (though third quarter 2004) that was - (drumroll) - 2%!

In other words, in the first 3 years in America, Apple managed with its iPod to find 2% of the population to buy and own an iPod (did all buy iTunes I don’t think so). In the first 3 years of 3G in the UK, the local carriers have convinced 2% of the population TO BUY SONGS as direct downloads to their phones. I’d say in Britain music on a phone is as viable as the iPod is in America?

Germany is the fourth largest music market. Here I have a hot-off-the-press Chip Xonio consumer survey of 3000 Germans from 20 July 2006. Guess what. 32% of Germans purhase MP3 songs to mobile phones !!! (those are almost all 2G/2.5G as Germany’s 3G penetration is only about 2% and most of those are 3G modems) Is music on cellphones viable? ABSOLUTELY. Please do adjust your mindset. You have seen the lousy archaic American phones, on horrible American carriers and networks, with miserable customer service and no industry support. I don’t mean to dump on America, but all in my industry - telecoms - both inside America and outside it, admit that Americans have the worst of the mobile telecoms. Years behind. But in Germanh today? music sold to phones? Absolutely.

So then two small markets to show how it REALLY can be done. Sweden (population 8 million, but broadband penetration ahead of USA, Europe’s second highest cellphone penetration at 120%, tied with UK 8% 3G penetration; by my index the world’s third most digital society - Japan is second)

So Sweden. In Sweden, one 3G carrier, Tre (3/Hutchison) offers Europe’s most advanced music service. Among their offers is an all-you-can-download service costing 99 SEK (18 dollars) per month. Tre’s music downloads generate 35% of all online music sales in Sweden, ahead of iTunes Sweden (source Tre). Is music viable on a phone today in 2006? YES

And finally South Korea, population 50 million. The world’s most digital country. Highest broadband penetration. Highest 3G phone penetration. First digital TV to mobile broadcast etc. First in my index of digitalization. The country where direct MP3 sales to mobiles was invented in June of 2003. Today (according to Korean telecoms industry English-language press Korea Telecom) a total of 45% of ALL music in Korea is sold directly to mobile phones. NOT 45% of online. 45% of ALL music. Universal music has been showcasing their Korean concepts all around Europe on this is how it needs to be done. Can music on cellphones be viable in 2006, can music to cellphones replace iPods. YES YES YES.

These statistics are in the numbers I report when I quote the IFPI global numbers in my original blog posting. I hear you guys here doubting that any cellphone you’ve seen could replace the iPod. But please. Don’t substitute your own personal gut feeling against reported facts. Like the economist John Maynard Keynes said, “When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?”

I’ll return with itemized comments tomorrow.

Tomi Ahonen

Hi all. I’ll come back (tomorrow) with full replies to you all. There are many very valid questions, concerns, doubts here that I really do want to reply to.

But let me leave you for now with some actual user data. In my blog I reported mostly only global numbers. I think in this discussion here, many are suggesting “it is not practical today” whether because of phones, or carriers, or whatever. That today, in 2006, it is not a valid customer selection choice, to select a musicphone over an iPod.

So lets examine a few markets individually. Japan. The world’s second largest music market by dollar value behind USA. In Japan last year the mobile music market was worth 211 Million dollars (source IFPI). Those familiar with Apple know iTunes in 2005 sold 400 million dollars worldwide. So in Japan alone music sold directly to mobile phones generated half the revenues of iTunes worldwide. Is it feasible today to have devices, music catalogs, service offerings, carrier marketing, etc to greatly succeed with actual, paid, downloads to mobile phones. Yes.

UK is the third largest music market. Today 27% of the 3G subscribers in Britain download music to phones (source Telephia). 3G subscribers are only 8% of Britains population (tied for fifth-best in the world) so that works out to only 2% of the total population. (I have only miscellaneous national stats. Of course the current 2G/2.5G phone owners also buy music in Britain, but I don’t have that statistic)

Once you get a 3G phone, it becomes a very good proposition to consume music. And before you pooh-pooh the 2% number, note these details. 3G was launched in Britain in 2003. So they have had it for 3 years. If we look at iPod penetration in the USA 3 years after the iPod launch (though third quarter 2004) that was - (drumroll) - 2%!

In other words, in the first 3 years in America, Apple managed with its iPod to find 2% of the population to buy and own an iPod (did all buy iTunes I don’t think so). In the first 3 years of 3G in the UK, the local carriers have convinced 2% of the population TO BUY SONGS as direct downloads to their phones. I’d say in Britain music on a phone is as viable as the iPod is in America?

Germany is the fourth largest music market. Here I have a hot-off-the-press Chip Xonio consumer survey of 3000 Germans from 20 July 2006. Guess what. 32% of Germans purhase MP3 songs to mobile phones !!! (those are almost all 2G/2.5G as Germany’s 3G penetration is only about 2% and most of those are 3G modems) Is music on cellphones viable? ABSOLUTELY. Please do adjust your mindset. You have seen the lousy archaic American phones, on horrible American carriers and networks, with miserable customer service and no industry support. I don’t mean to dump on America, but all in my industry - telecoms - both inside America and outside it, admit that Americans have the worst of the mobile telecoms. Years behind. But in Germanh today? music sold to phones? Absolutely.

So then two small markets to show how it REALLY can be done. Sweden (population 8 million, but broadband penetration ahead of USA, Europe’s second highest cellphone penetration at 120%, tied with UK 8% 3G penetration; by my index the world’s third most digital society - Japan is second)

So Sweden. In Sweden, one 3G carrier, Tre (3/Hutchison) offers Europe’s most advanced music service. Among their offers is an all-you-can-download service costing 99 SEK (18 dollars) per month. Tre’s music downloads generate 35% of all online music sales in Sweden, ahead of iTunes Sweden (source Tre). Is music viable on a phone today in 2006? YES

And finally South Korea, population 50 million. The world’s most digital country. Highest broadband penetration. Highest 3G phone penetration. First digital TV to mobile broadcast etc. First in my index of digitalization. The country where direct MP3 sales to mobiles was invented in June of 2003. Today (according to Korean telecoms industry English-language press Korea Telecom) a total of 45% of ALL music in Korea is sold directly to mobile phones. NOT 45% of online. 45% of ALL music. Universal music has been showcasing their Korean concepts all around Europe on this is how it needs to be done. Can music on cellphones be viable in 2006, can music to cellphones replace iPods. YES YES YES.

These statistics are in the numbers I report when I quote the IFPI global numbers in my original blog posting. I hear you guys here doubting that any cellphone you’ve seen could replace the iPod. But please. Don’t substitute your own personal gut feeling against reported facts. Like the economist John Maynard Keynes said, “When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?”

I’ll return with itemized comments tomorrow.

Tomi Ahonen

[...] Is IPod going to die because cell phones will soon have music playing capability? [...]

What’s really broken here? Apple and the iPod or the Reboot conference? Is this the first sign that Scoble has gone Silicon Valley (and losing touch with what’s happening more than 15 minutes away from the 101)?

What’s really broken here? Apple and the iPod or the Reboot conference? Is this the first sign that Scoble has gone Silicon Valley (and losing touch with what’s happening more than 15 minutes away from the 101)?

Brian: the Reboot Conference is in Copenhagen, Denmark. About as far from Silicon Valley as you can get. Maybe it’s YOU who has lost touch with what’s happening outside the valley?

Brian: the Reboot Conference is in Copenhagen, Denmark. About as far from Silicon Valley as you can get. Maybe it’s YOU who has lost touch with what’s happening outside the valley?

” Out of a total market of 119.5 million pocketable MP3 players sold in 2005, Apple’s 22.5 million iPods have a share of 18.8%

Now first half of 2006. For every iPod sold, the phone makers sell six. Apple’s market share is 14% and dropping.”

Yes, you make it very clear: you are hit whoring. You know state clearly: Apple marketshare declined 18.8% to 14% (using your absurd product definition). Fine. Where’s the market share crash? That’s not a share crash? That’s sensationalist propaganda to hit whore because you can’t offer anything else. Once you make your argument rational and comprehensible, you aren’t saying anything new, the market dynamics haven’t changed, and every still disagrees with you but thinks you are saying nothing impressive.

I say “books” because you keep avoiding my question: who are your endorsers and how many books do you sell? Even the biggest publishers today allow some measure of self-publishing.

” Out of a total market of 119.5 million pocketable MP3 players sold in 2005, Apple’s 22.5 million iPods have a share of 18.8%

Now first half of 2006. For every iPod sold, the phone makers sell six. Apple’s market share is 14% and dropping.”

Yes, you make it very clear: you are hit whoring. You know state clearly: Apple marketshare declined 18.8% to 14% (using your absurd product definition). Fine. Where’s the market share crash? That’s not a share crash? That’s sensationalist propaganda to hit whore because you can’t offer anything else. Once you make your argument rational and comprehensible, you aren’t saying anything new, the market dynamics haven’t changed, and every still disagrees with you but thinks you are saying nothing impressive.

I say “books” because you keep avoiding my question: who are your endorsers and how many books do you sell? Even the biggest publishers today allow some measure of self-publishing.

Whoa Goebbels.

You doubt my books credentials? My books are available in all countries all booksellers. They are not some pamphlets on the web. These are full hard-cover books. FOUR of them.

I have two publishers. The first is John Wiley & Sons. The largest publisher of engineering and techical books in the world, headquartered in Chichester England. They own dozens of printing brands, you probably know them best for the yellow-covered paperback books “for Dummies” series. And no, I have not written a book of telecoms for dummies.

Wiley publish me at their top line brand, under Wiley, an all hardcover books division. Every bookseller in the world knows Wiley, available absolutely everywhere. And I’d say one of the most reputable and respected traditional publishers in the world.

My second publisher is Futuretext, a niche publisher who focuses on future oriented books. Futuretext wanted me to join them not only as an author but also to help them build a family of authors, to help young writers get published. At the Open Gardens event in London February last year, Futuretext announced me as their mentor for new aspiring authors.

I write for both publishers, and have current titles under development with both. I expect my fifth book will be released in a few months.

So what of bestsellers?

Wiley approached me for a book, have so far relased three. My first, Services for UMTS, 380 pages, co-edited with Joe Barrett, was released by Wiley in March 2002, and was certified as a bestseller by Wiley in October 2002. It has since been translated into Chinese.

My second book was m-Profits, 360 pages, released by While in October 2002 and certified by Wiley as a bestseller in October 2003.

My third book was 3G Marketing, 333 pages, co-authored with Timo Kasper and Sara Melkko, was released in June 2004, certfied a bestseller by Wiley in October 2004, went into its second printing in December 2004, and Wiley publically stated at the book signing event, held at the biggest telecoms event in the world, 3GSM World Congress in Cannes in February 2005, that my book 3G Marketing, has become the fastest-selling telecoms book of all time. I guess that is justified as a bestseller?

My fourth book is Communties Dominate Brand, co-authored with Alan Moore, 280 pages, released by Futuretext, in April 2005. It went into its second printing in September 2005 when it was certified a bestseller by Futuretext. They even printed “global bestseller” on the revised front cover of the second edition.

I have no idea what are the actual publishing criteria for a book becoming a bestseller. It seems to me that among the books released by Wiley around telecoms, about 5% are bestsellers. There may be an industry standard, I don’t know. I have no control in that matter. I only report what they say.

BUT for a hardcover book to go into second printings, is usually a definite sign its selling remarkably well, better obviously than the publisher expected. Most hardcover books don’t sell their first print run.

As to my endorsers. I trust this level of companies and especially note the senior level of the executives and the global scope of the companies involved, will help you accept, perhaps this Tomi Ahonen publishes real books, not only in-quotes “books”

Telecom Italia Future Lab, Director, Roberto Saracco
Vodafone, Director Group R&D, Dr Stanley Chia
Ericsson, Sr Vice President Business Development, Jan-Anders Dalenstam
NTT DoCoMo, Executive Director, Voytek Siewierski
Intel, Director of Technology, Jeff Lawrence
O2, Vice President, Mike Short
Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, Global Head of Strategy Consulting Telecom Practise, Dr Didier Bonnet
Nomura International Bank, Deputy Head Global Corporate Finance, Assad Razzouk
France Telecom, UMTS Project Director, Sophie Ghnassia
Bell Canada, Director of Channel Development, Mark Weisleder
MobileOne Singapore, Director Internet Services, Steven SK Chan
PwC Consulting, Director Telecom Practice, Regina Nilsson
OgilvyOne, Vice Chairman, Rory Sutherland
Publicis Media Groupe, Chief Innovation Officer, Rishad Tobaccowala
Korg, Managing Director, Rob Castle
Mercer Management Consulting, Vice President, Joao Baptista
Red Bull (UK), Managing Director, Harry Dronec
Cybird, CEO, Kazutomo Robert Hori
TV2 Norway, Vice President, John Ranelagh

I trust Goebbels that you recognize a few of those companies, although some may be a bit obscure for American readers - like Vodafone, the world’s largest mobile operator group. NTT DoCoMo the world’s first cellphone carrier who also was the world’s first 3G carrier and whose internet arm iMode earns more on its mobile phone based internet services than Google, eBay, Yahoo, AOL and Amazon - COMBINED. Ericsson is the world’s largest supplier of mobile telecoms networking equipment. Cybird is Japan’s biggest independent internet portal. Publicis is the worlds’ second largest media group. And so forth. Real rinky-dinky small companies nobody has heard of and probably Finnish pals of the author, right?

The endorsements are printed in the books - there are about twice as many as the above. I didn’t bother to write the actual sentences what they said here which are like “I earnestly recommend you read this book - and then tell everybody else to read it too”, you can read all of course at my website, or blogsite, or the publishers’ websites, etc. Satisfied?

I lecture at Oxford University. I represent the industry at the most prestigious events. My customers are the who’s who of telecoms, and many of the other leading Fortune 500 companies attempting to get into the new mobile internet space.

The references are fully openly available. I have my bio published at dozens of locations and at LinkedIn.

I resent your claim that my book publishing credentials are somehow tainted.

I’d expect a direct acknowledgement Goebbels

Tomi Ahonen

Whoa Goebbels.

You doubt my books credentials? My books are available in all countries all booksellers. They are not some pamphlets on the web. These are full hard-cover books. FOUR of them.

I have two publishers. The first is John Wiley & Sons. The largest publisher of engineering and techical books in the world, headquartered in Chichester England. They own dozens of printing brands, you probably know them best for the yellow-covered paperback books “for Dummies” series. And no, I have not written a book of telecoms for dummies.

Wiley publish me at their top line brand, under Wiley, an all hardcover books division. Every bookseller in the world knows Wiley, available absolutely everywhere. And I’d say one of the most reputable and respected traditional publishers in the world.

My second publisher is Futuretext, a niche publisher who focuses on future oriented books. Futuretext wanted me to join them not only as an author but also to help them build a family of authors, to help young writers get published. At the Open Gardens event in London February last year, Futuretext announced me as their mentor for new aspiring authors.

I write for both publishers, and have current titles under development with both. I expect my fifth book will be released in a few months.

So what of bestsellers?

Wiley approached me for a book, have so far relased three. My first, Services for UMTS, 380 pages, co-edited with Joe Barrett, was released by Wiley in March 2002, and was certified as a bestseller by Wiley in October 2002. It has since been translated into Chinese.

My second book was m-Profits, 360 pages, released by While in October 2002 and certified by Wiley as a bestseller in October 2003.

My third book was 3G Marketing, 333 pages, co-authored with Timo Kasper and Sara Melkko, was released in June 2004, certfied a bestseller by Wiley in October 2004, went into its second printing in December 2004, and Wiley publically stated at the book signing event, held at the biggest telecoms event in the world, 3GSM World Congress in Cannes in February 2005, that my book 3G Marketing, has become the fastest-selling telecoms book of all time. I guess that is justified as a bestseller?

My fourth book is Communties Dominate Brand, co-authored with Alan Moore, 280 pages, released by Futuretext, in April 2005. It went into its second printing in September 2005 when it was certified a bestseller by Futuretext. They even printed “global bestseller” on the revised front cover of the second edition.

I have no idea what are the actual publishing criteria for a book becoming a bestseller. It seems to me that among the books released by Wiley around telecoms, about 5% are bestsellers. There may be an industry standard, I don’t know. I have no control in that matter. I only report what they say.

BUT for a hardcover book to go into second printings, is usually a definite sign its selling remarkably well, better obviously than the publisher expected. Most hardcover books don’t sell their first print run.

As to my endorsers. I trust this level of companies and especially note the senior level of the executives and the global scope of the companies involved, will help you accept, perhaps this Tomi Ahonen publishes real books, not only in-quotes “books”

Telecom Italia Future Lab, Director, Roberto Saracco
Vodafone, Director Group R&D, Dr Stanley Chia
Ericsson, Sr Vice President Business Development, Jan-Anders Dalenstam
NTT DoCoMo, Executive Director, Voytek Siewierski
Intel, Director of Technology, Jeff Lawrence
O2, Vice President, Mike Short
Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, Global Head of Strategy Consulting Telecom Practise, Dr Didier Bonnet
Nomura International Bank, Deputy Head Global Corporate Finance, Assad Razzouk
France Telecom, UMTS Project Director, Sophie Ghnassia
Bell Canada, Director of Channel Development, Mark Weisleder
MobileOne Singapore, Director Internet Services, Steven SK Chan
PwC Consulting, Director Telecom Practice, Regina Nilsson
OgilvyOne, Vice Chairman, Rory Sutherland
Publicis Media Groupe, Chief Innovation Officer, Rishad Tobaccowala
Korg, Managing Director, Rob Castle
Mercer Management Consulting, Vice President, Joao Baptista
Red Bull (UK), Managing Director, Harry Dronec
Cybird, CEO, Kazutomo Robert Hori
TV2 Norway, Vice President, John Ranelagh

I trust Goebbels that you recognize a few of those companies, although some may be a bit obscure for American readers - like Vodafone, the world’s largest mobile operator group. NTT DoCoMo the world’s first cellphone carrier who also was the world’s first 3G carrier and whose internet arm iMode earns more on its mobile phone based internet services than Google, eBay, Yahoo, AOL and Amazon - COMBINED. Ericsson is the world’s largest supplier of mobile telecoms networking equipment. Cybird is Japan’s biggest independent internet portal. Publicis is the worlds’ second largest media group. And so forth. Real rinky-dinky small companies nobody has heard of and probably Finnish pals of the author, right?

The endorsements are printed in the books - there are about twice as many as the above. I didn’t bother to write the actual sentences what they said here which are like “I earnestly recommend you read this book - and then tell everybody else to read it too”, you can read all of course at my website, or blogsite, or the publishers’ websites, etc. Satisfied?

I lecture at Oxford University. I represent the industry at the most prestigious events. My customers are the who’s who of telecoms, and many of the other leading Fortune 500 companies attempting to get into the new mobile internet space.

The references are fully openly available. I have my bio published at dozens of locations and at LinkedIn.

I resent your claim that my book publishing credentials are somehow tainted.

I’d expect a direct acknowledgement Goebbels

Tomi Ahonen

Oops, sorry, didn’t mean iMode was bigger than eBay, Google, Yahoo, AOL and Amazon “combined” - where was my mind. I meant larger than any ONE of them. The world’s biggest internet company by revenues is the Japanese ISP arm of NTT DoCoMo, which they call iMode.

Sorry about that. I know this site gets a lot of readers. I don’t want that mistake to go out ha-ha.

Oops, sorry, didn’t mean iMode was bigger than eBay, Google, Yahoo, AOL and Amazon “combined” - where was my mind. I meant larger than any ONE of them. The world’s biggest internet company by revenues is the Japanese ISP arm of NTT DoCoMo, which they call iMode.

Sorry about that. I know this site gets a lot of readers. I don’t want that mistake to go out ha-ha.

Now for some replies. I won’t address all here, this is Robert’s blog ha-ha. But a few I’d like to mention

Tony - about one-trick ponies ie analogue camcorders and modems. Well, isn’t it dangerously close that iPods are one-trick ponies. For most users? And that functionality is dangerously easy to integrate into a phone? I hear you about 40 years of IT bringing scepticism. Me too though a few years less ha-ha.

Mike Johnson - you give a lot of reasons why technically the iPod is a superior music experience. In my original blog I’ve already given you this argument. It is irrelevant. Being best does not give you the market. Ferraris and Rolls Royces may be the best cars technically, but the best-selling cars are Toyotas and Chevrolets and Fiats and other very average cars. Technical superiority is a sure-fire guarantee to lose the mass market. Concorde was the superior airplane technically but Boeing 747 Jumbo Jets won the war. Betamax was superior technically - at every generation to the VHS recorders, yet VHS won. Macs have always been superior to DOS and Windows PCs, yet Macs are what 5% of the market? Same will happen with iPods. They had 80% of the global market in 2004. 19% last year. 14% now and will have less than 10% by year-end.

sam - market shares are always reported by period. Current. So either this month or this quarter or this year. So 14% market share this quarter is the right measure. Its not an accumulated penetration rate, perhaps what you are thinking of.

Karim. Very funny, really. But seriously. The end-customers have validated my rationale. End-customers all around the world don’t see a difference. They buy both phones and iPods for music. They use them both for music and they PURCHSE music to both. I have given you all the stats. So your wonderful argument into absurdity, while entertaining, is not really relevant. I wouldn’t attempt to classify desktop PCs as rivals for portable, personal, pocketable music players.

Herb - “does anyone really think Apple is going to get caught flat-footed this time around?” THEY DID. That is EXACTLY my point. I know from personal contacts with several handset makers, that there were serious discussions with Apple with many. Apple could have owned this market. Rather than report declining iPod sales from 8.5 million to 8.1 million units, if they played their cards right - and every phone maker wanted the iPod cool to their phones last year - Apple could have reported iPod sales growing from 40 million to 50 million THIS QUARTER. Think about that for a moment. At the start of last year they had 80% of the market. Now they have 14%. They could have made their move. They didn’t. They did exactly like you mentioned - get caught flat-footed. EXACTLY my point. Alas. I honestly am a big Apple fan and had hoped and hoped and hoped they’d make their move. They STILL haven’t.

Cybereer. “utter misrepresentation” in Oppenheimer quote. I am assuming you have it now verbatim correct (won’t try to go cut and paste from somewhere) so from your posting: “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

So what is misrepresentation? When I say Oppenheimer accepts musicphones as serious rivals to iPods already? “I don’t think music phones make the best music players.” He did not say “phones are not music players.” He fully admitted they are music players, only that in his opinion iPods are still currently the best music players.

Where am I misrepresenting? And to “we are not sitting around doing nothing” - haha I think they currently seem to be doing nothing for the past 18 months - but yes, you can nitpick from that but the implication is that Apple is preparing an iPhone, without committing to it.

People call me a moron - yes, some Mac fanatics have called me a moron last two days. You’ll be amazed how many Mac fanatics are also accepting that my posting had a lot of merit, so the moron may have been a hasty generalization. But your accusation that I’m an outright liar too, that is too much. You do need to point to me where I lied. And if I make a mistake (like the iMode comment above) I own up to them and do try to correct them. I believe in the ability of the blogosphere to decypher truth, and that with permalinks, liars are very rapidly exposed.

So where do you find me not being truthful?

Koreen Madden - I never said Apple was dying. And I even never said iPod was totally being finished. I’ve blogged since October last year about this, that iPod is rapidly losing market share and is being forced to being a niche player - like the Macintosh PC. I didn’t say iPods die out.

Goebbels (again) - on the 18% to 14% point. Good point, not that huge a drop. But that was in only 6 months. But note when I say crashed - I do take it from end of 2004, when iPod global market share was at its peak of 80%. I would challenge you Goebbels to find any other company any time in history, to have owned an a market with 80% market share at the end of one year, and then find itself with 14% of that market in a year and a half - and then see what was the review of that company? Would be a case study for MBA courses in how to dismantle a success. How to snatch defeat from the jaws of history. And I also am starting to believe this may be a world record for destroying a market-leading position. Not good. Not good at all.

Greetings to all. Thanks for such a lively discussion here about that blog.

Tomi Ahonen

Now for some replies. I won’t address all here, this is Robert’s blog ha-ha. But a few I’d like to mention

Tony - about one-trick ponies ie analogue camcorders and modems. Well, isn’t it dangerously close that iPods are one-trick ponies. For most users? And that functionality is dangerously easy to integrate into a phone? I hear you about 40 years of IT bringing scepticism. Me too though a few years less ha-ha.

Mike Johnson - you give a lot of reasons why technically the iPod is a superior music experience. In my original blog I’ve already given you this argument. It is irrelevant. Being best does not give you the market. Ferraris and Rolls Royces may be the best cars technically, but the best-selling cars are Toyotas and Chevrolets and Fiats and other very average cars. Technical superiority is a sure-fire guarantee to lose the mass market. Concorde was the superior airplane technically but Boeing 747 Jumbo Jets won the war. Betamax was superior technically - at every generation to the VHS recorders, yet VHS won. Macs have always been superior to DOS and Windows PCs, yet Macs are what 5% of the market? Same will happen with iPods. They had 80% of the global market in 2004. 19% last year. 14% now and will have less than 10% by year-end.

sam - market shares are always reported by period. Current. So either this month or this quarter or this year. So 14% market share this quarter is the right measure. Its not an accumulated penetration rate, perhaps what you are thinking of.

Karim. Very funny, really. But seriously. The end-customers have validated my rationale. End-customers all around the world don’t see a difference. They buy both phones and iPods for music. They use them both for music and they PURCHSE music to both. I have given you all the stats. So your wonderful argument into absurdity, while entertaining, is not really relevant. I wouldn’t attempt to classify desktop PCs as rivals for portable, personal, pocketable music players.

Herb - “does anyone really think Apple is going to get caught flat-footed this time around?” THEY DID. That is EXACTLY my point. I know from personal contacts with several handset makers, that there were serious discussions with Apple with many. Apple could have owned this market. Rather than report declining iPod sales from 8.5 million to 8.1 million units, if they played their cards right - and every phone maker wanted the iPod cool to their phones last year - Apple could have reported iPod sales growing from 40 million to 50 million THIS QUARTER. Think about that for a moment. At the start of last year they had 80% of the market. Now they have 14%. They could have made their move. They didn’t. They did exactly like you mentioned - get caught flat-footed. EXACTLY my point. Alas. I honestly am a big Apple fan and had hoped and hoped and hoped they’d make their move. They STILL haven’t.

Cybereer. “utter misrepresentation” in Oppenheimer quote. I am assuming you have it now verbatim correct (won’t try to go cut and paste from somewhere) so from your posting: “we don’t think that the phones that are available today make the best music players, we think the iPod is, but over time that is likely to change. We’re not sitting around doing nothing.”

So what is misrepresentation? When I say Oppenheimer accepts musicphones as serious rivals to iPods already? “I don’t think music phones make the best music players.” He did not say “phones are not music players.” He fully admitted they are music players, only that in his opinion iPods are still currently the best music players.

Where am I misrepresenting? And to “we are not sitting around doing nothing” - haha I think they currently seem to be doing nothing for the past 18 months - but yes, you can nitpick from that but the implication is that Apple is preparing an iPhone, without committing to it.

People call me a moron - yes, some Mac fanatics have called me a moron last two days. You’ll be amazed how many Mac fanatics are also accepting that my posting had a lot of merit, so the moron may have been a hasty generalization. But your accusation that I’m an outright liar too, that is too much. You do need to point to me where I lied. And if I make a mistake (like the iMode comment above) I own up to them and do try to correct them. I believe in the ability of the blogosphere to decypher truth, and that with permalinks, liars are very rapidly exposed.

So where do you find me not being truthful?

Koreen Madden - I never said Apple was dying. And I even never said iPod was totally being finished. I’ve blogged since October last year about this, that iPod is rapidly losing market share and is being forced to being a niche player - like the Macintosh PC. I didn’t say iPods die out.

Goebbels (again) - on the 18% to 14% point. Good point, not that huge a drop. But that was in only 6 months. But note when I say crashed - I do take it from end of 2004, when iPod global market share was at its peak of 80%. I would challenge you Goebbels to find any other company any time in history, to have owned an a market with 80% market share at the end of one year, and then find itself with 14% of that market in a year and a half - and then see what was the review of that company? Would be a case study for MBA courses in how to dismantle a success. How to snatch defeat from the jaws of history. And I also am starting to believe this may be a world record for destroying a market-leading position. Not good. Not good at all.

Greetings to all. Thanks for such a lively discussion here about that blog.

Tomi Ahonen

Tomi,

I don’t think that most MP3 players are one-trick ponies any more than cell phones are. It is just that much care has been taken with the iPod UI for the many things it can do whereas cell phones never really got beyond the UI of conventional phones.

Cell phone design seems based around a device that is of similar 2-D dimensions of a business card. The main attempt to improve the UI seems to be with either flip phones or slider phones. But all are constrained by useless keyboards, dire software, too many interface sockets, and too small displays. Almost nothing is intuitive.

The iPod is all about intuitive use and has proved remarkably adaptable - cover art, video, great software, minimal interfaces. So why has it taken so long for a phone designer to emulate an iPod when clearly touch-screens would advance the UI in big way?

Tomi,

I don’t think that most MP3 players are one-trick ponies any more than cell phones are. It is just that much care has been taken with the iPod UI for the many things it can do whereas cell phones never really got beyond the UI of conventional phones.

Cell phone design seems based around a device that is of similar 2-D dimensions of a business card. The main attempt to improve the UI seems to be with either flip phones or slider phones. But all are constrained by useless keyboards, dire software, too many interface sockets, and too small displays. Almost nothing is intuitive.

The iPod is all about intuitive use and has proved remarkably adaptable - cover art, video, great software, minimal interfaces. So why has it taken so long for a phone designer to emulate an iPod when clearly touch-screens would advance the UI in big way?

Hi Tony

Now I don’t understand you? You say modems and stand-alone (analog) videocameras (when video recorders were separate units connected by cable; before their integration into camcorders) were “one trick ponies” but the iPod (and other stand-alone MP3 players) is not?

Why not? I would argue by far the most of iPod users use their iPods only for listening. Like a portable radio, or portable CD player but with a larger catalogue of content. Why is this not a one-trick pony? What other tricks do iPods offer (that are used today)

Then on the intuitive user interface. This is Apple’s core competence and they lead in this area by a long mile. I am quite confident Apple will maintain an UI lead with iPods like they did with Macs all since their launch in 1984. Brilliant at it.

The problem is that for the average user, this will soon become a secondary issue. With the early market, it matters, when very selective, “intelligent” customers consider. But later, in the mass market it is only “adequate” performance combined with optimal price. And here on both counts phones win totally hands-down. They can mimick 80% - 90% perhaps even 95% of iPods overall proposition with relative ease. A true iPod user will always see the difference, but the average housemom who just wants a music player when she takes the dog for a walk - makes no difference how many cazillion songs can be stored, or how easy it is to make playlists etc.

If the MP3 player comes “for free” as part of the upgrade to the next cellphone anyway - everybody HAS to have a cellphone, nobody has to have an MP3 player - and if that price (differential) to get the musicphones rather than the more traditional phone, this is the clinching argument. Too easy to pick the musicphone and live with that. Yes, in an ideal world she’d want an iPod. And yes, she may “ask for one from Santa Claus” ie her techie husband might get one for her maybe, but no, the musicphone is good enough.

For almost all serious about music, the iPod is the only option. Or even if a serious music fan finds a good musicphone, odds are the person ALSO has an iPod. Uses the iPod mostly, the musicphone occasionally.

Just remember, when I talk about mass market, I am not talking about you or me or Robert Scoble or anyone who knows of the Scobleizer blogsite (we’re all techies). We will know and understand the value of an iPod and can appreciate its excellence. The mass market is not that clever. The mass market has already voted with its dollars, and already last year bought 4 musicphones for every iPod. This summer its 6 to 1, it will be more than 10 to 1 by year-end.

Oh, by the way, you asked also “why” phone makers don’t emulate iPod fully? Its because the phone design game is viciously nastily difficult. Ever opened up a smartphone? Tiny tiny electronics, every nook and cranny. The typical smartphone design is now 80% software and 20% hardware. The software is 9 million lines of code. The design takes 18 months and the basic design is frozen 9 months before release. They have a huge headache in incorporating all “sufficiently” into the phone.

And remember, an iPod does not need to be compatible with anything else except its connecting points. A cellphone has to actively connect, via radio, to ALL cellular networks of that given standard family. On GSM there are over 700 separate cellular networks in 210 countries and regions.

It is a series of compromises. While we now may see that music is a huge factor for the phone industry, when these latest phones were originally designed (about January 2005) - the big promising features were so-called “MMS” multimedia messages ie picture sharing. Internet browsing was shifting from the failed first release of WAP to its improved update and various faster “2.5G” and 3G technologies. The management at most phone makers would have emphasized totally other things back then than music.

I know iPods are critical to Apple and have revitalized the company and its brand. But keep in mind, when Apple sold some 8 million iPods in 2004, that is TRIVIAL to a mobile phone industry, literally one percent of the amount of phones shipping annually - this year they expect to reach one billion phones sold per year.

So the phone makers COULD NOT put much effort into doing a good musicphone. They had to do a quick job at it, with compromises.

Tomi Ahonen

Hi Tony

Now I don’t understand you? You say modems and stand-alone (analog) videocameras (when video recorders were separate units connected by cable; before their integration into camcorders) were “one trick ponies” but the iPod (and other stand-alone MP3 players) is not?

Why not? I would argue by far the most of iPod users use their iPods only for listening. Like a portable radio, or portable CD player but with a larger catalogue of content. Why is this not a one-trick pony? What other tricks do iPods offer (that are used today)

Then on the intuitive user interface. This is Apple’s core competence and they lead in this area by a long mile. I am quite confident Apple will maintain an UI lead with iPods like they did with Macs all since their launch in 1984. Brilliant at it.

The problem is that for the average user, this will soon become a secondary issue. With the early market, it matters, when very selective, “intelligent” customers consider. But later, in the mass market it is only “adequate” performance combined with optimal price. And here on both counts phones win totally hands-down. They can mimick 80% - 90% perhaps even 95% of iPods overall proposition with relative ease. A true iPod user will always see the difference, but the average housemom who just wants a music player when she takes the dog for a walk - makes no difference how many cazillion songs can be stored, or how easy it is to make playlists etc.

If the MP3 player comes “for free” as part of the upgrade to the next cellphone anyway - everybody HAS to have a cellphone, nobody has to have an MP3 player - and if that price (differential) to get the musicphones rather than the more traditional phone, this is the clinching argument. Too easy to pick the musicphone and live with that. Yes, in an ideal world she’d want an iPod. And yes, she may “ask for one from Santa Claus” ie her techie husband might get one for her maybe, but no, the musicphone is good enough.

For almost all serious about music, the iPod is the only option. Or even if a serious music fan finds a good musicphone, odds are the person ALSO has an iPod. Uses the iPod mostly, the musicphone occasionally.

Just remember, when I talk about mass market, I am not talking about you or me or Robert Scoble or anyone who knows of the Scobleizer blogsite (we’re all techies). We will know and understand the value of an iPod and can appreciate its excellence. The mass market is not that clever. The mass market has already voted with its dollars, and already last year bought 4 musicphones for every iPod. This summer its 6 to 1, it will be more than 10 to 1 by year-end.

Oh, by the way, you asked also “why” phone makers don’t emulate iPod fully? Its because the phone design game is viciously nastily difficult. Ever opened up a smartphone? Tiny tiny electronics, every nook and cranny. The typical smartphone design is now 80% software and 20% hardware. The software is 9 million lines of code. The design takes 18 months and the basic design is frozen 9 months before release. They have a huge headache in incorporating all “sufficiently” into the phone.

And remember, an iPod does not need to be compatible with anything else except its connecting points. A cellphone has to actively connect, via radio, to ALL cellular networks of that given standard family. On GSM there are over 700 separate cellular networks in 210 countries and regions.

It is a series of compromises. While we now may see that music is a huge factor for the phone industry, when these latest phones were originally designed (about January 2005) - the big promising features were so-called “MMS” multimedia messages ie picture sharing. Internet browsing was shifting from the failed first release of WAP to its improved update and various faster “2.5G” and 3G technologies. The management at most phone makers would have emphasized totally other things back then than music.

I know iPods are critical to Apple and have revitalized the company and its brand. But keep in mind, when Apple sold some 8 million iPods in 2004, that is TRIVIAL to a mobile phone industry, literally one percent of the amount of phones shipping annually - this year they expect to reach one billion phones sold per year.

So the phone makers COULD NOT put much effort into doing a good musicphone. They had to do a quick job at it, with compromises.

Tomi Ahonen

Tomi says: “The problem is that for the average user, this will soon become a secondary issue. With the early market, it matters, when very selective, “intelligent” customers consider. But later, in the mass market it is only “adequate” performance combined with optimal price. And here on both counts phones win totally hands-down. They can mimick 80% - 90% perhaps even 95% of iPods overall proposition with relative ease. A true iPod user will always see the difference, but the average housemom who just wants a music player when she takes the dog for a walk - makes no difference how many cazillion songs can be stored, or how easy it is to make playlists etc.”

Are you saying that currently there are few ‘average housemoms” who have bought iPods? Mmmm…and the iPod/iTunes/iTunes Music Store proposition is that it ‘just works’ - no manual required - so just explain how the likes of Nokia/Motorola/Sony Ericsson, etc. are achieving the ‘just works’ status?

And iPods do audiobooks, videos, calendars, to do lists, file storage (akin to flash memory drives) and other things apart from music as well as having a simple interface to power/PCs/other audio devices/etc. And all this with the same easy UI.

Tomi says: “So the phone makers COULD NOT put much effort into doing a good musicphone. They had to do a quick job at it, with compromises.”

And there was I thinking that competition led to better design. Are you telling me that the combined efforts of Nokia/Motorola/Sony Ericsson/etc. between them haven’t been able to come up with one viable solution in 4 years? Don’t make me laugh! So why are they going to now - or did I miss this bit?

Tomi says: “The problem is that for the average user, this will soon become a secondary issue. With the early market, it matters, when very selective, “intelligent” customers consider. But later, in the mass market it is only “adequate” performance combined with optimal price. And here on both counts phones win totally hands-down. They can mimick 80% - 90% perhaps even 95% of iPods overall proposition with relative ease. A true iPod user will always see the difference, but the average housemom who just wants a music player when she takes the dog for a walk - makes no difference how many cazillion songs can be stored, or how easy it is to make playlists etc.”

Are you saying that currently there are few ‘average housemoms” who have bought iPods? Mmmm…and the iPod/iTunes/iTunes Music Store proposition is that it ‘just works’ - no manual required - so just explain how the likes of Nokia/Motorola/Sony Ericsson, etc. are achieving the ‘just works’ status?

And iPods do audiobooks, videos, calendars, to do lists, file storage (akin to flash memory drives) and other things apart from music as well as having a simple interface to power/PCs/other audio devices/etc. And all this with the same easy UI.

Tomi says: “So the phone makers COULD NOT put much effort into doing a good musicphone. They had to do a quick job at it, with compromises.”

And there was I thinking that competition led to better design. Are you telling me that the combined efforts of Nokia/Motorola/Sony Ericsson/etc. between them haven’t been able to come up with one viable solution in 4 years? Don’t make me laugh! So why are they going to now - or did I miss this bit?

Hi Tony

If you look at iPod’s total penetration - its what 14% of Americans - that is the geeky early adopter part and JUST last year started to penetrate the early majority. Yes, a “few” moms here and there. Mostly its us geeks.

Now, is the iPod SUPERIOR in its integration and iTunes proposition and user interface. YES YES YES. Always has been - AND ALWAYS WILL BE. Just like the Macintosh. Superior, but a niche market. The mass market does not need the best, else we’d all drive Porsches and Maybachs…

Of the phone makers. They have NOT tried for four years. They ACTIVELY IGNORED the puny MP3 player market for Apple’s first two years. They started to monitor it - without showing any interest - in 2004. Only in 2005 did they START to get into it.

NOW in 2006 we see the first serious entries by musicphone makers. The SonyEricsson Walkmans. The Nokia N91 first true musicphone by Nokia with its 4 GB of storage etc. The LG Chocolate, Europe’s bestselling phone of all time (quite an achievement by a Korean manufacturer in the back yard of Ericsson (SonyEricsson), Nokia, Alcatel, Siemens (BenQ) etc.

The phone makers got into it only last year. They are now dead-serious. Still now, music is not the ONLY thing phone makers want into their phones. They’re now preparing for 3.5G, they are adding full digital TV set-top boxes (yes, digital broadcast TV to phones) etc, not to mention such technical gimmicks and tricks like SIP and IMS. So even now, the music ability is one of several - and need compromise.

Tony - answer me this. If the only neutral party in this - the music industry, which WANTS to maximize THEIR revenues and profits - is all singing in unison the beauty of mobile phones, then is that not the ultimate judge-and-jury for this?

Tomi

Hi Tony

If you look at iPod’s total penetration - its what 14% of Americans - that is the geeky early adopter part and JUST last year started to penetrate the early majority. Yes, a “few” moms here and there. Mostly its us geeks.

Now, is the iPod SUPERIOR in its integration and iTunes proposition and user interface. YES YES YES. Always has been - AND ALWAYS WILL BE. Just like the Macintosh. Superior, but a niche market. The mass market does not need the best, else we’d all drive Porsches and Maybachs…

Of the phone makers. They have NOT tried for four years. They ACTIVELY IGNORED the puny MP3 player market for Apple’s first two years. They started to monitor it - without showing any interest - in 2004. Only in 2005 did they START to get into it.

NOW in 2006 we see the first serious entries by musicphone makers. The SonyEricsson Walkmans. The Nokia N91 first true musicphone by Nokia with its 4 GB of storage etc. The LG Chocolate, Europe’s bestselling phone of all time (quite an achievement by a Korean manufacturer in the back yard of Ericsson (SonyEricsson), Nokia, Alcatel, Siemens (BenQ) etc.

The phone makers got into it only last year. They are now dead-serious. Still now, music is not the ONLY thing phone makers want into their phones. They’re now preparing for 3.5G, they are adding full digital TV set-top boxes (yes, digital broadcast TV to phones) etc, not to mention such technical gimmicks and tricks like SIP and IMS. So even now, the music ability is one of several - and need compromise.

Tony - answer me this. If the only neutral party in this - the music industry, which WANTS to maximize THEIR revenues and profits - is all singing in unison the beauty of mobile phones, then is that not the ultimate judge-and-jury for this?

Tomi

Tomi says: “If the only neutral party in this - the music industry, which WANTS to maximize THEIR revenues and profits - is all singing in unison the beauty of mobile phones, then is that not the ultimate judge-and-jury for this?”

The ultimate judge and jury is of course the consumer. The recording industry isn’t neutral at all. But of course as I stroll the streets of my town what I see isn’t geeks but ordinary people using iPods or other MP3 players. What you don’t see are people listening to music on cell phones. This year I’ve spotted just one.

The problem with all the phones you quote are that they are high-end models that geeks like Scoble tend to buy. In the UK which is dominated by ‘pay as you go’ tariff users these people just do not buy high-end phones in any quantity. In other countries the mix may be different but judging from earlier comments I guess it similarly applies in the US.

If and when 3G phone services become a mass-market in the UK and US then I might see changes but until then or unless something like WiMax comes of age then Apple and other iPod wannabes do not have much to worry about. MS cannot be worried if it is launching Zune?

Tomi says: “If the only neutral party in this - the music industry, which WANTS to maximize THEIR revenues and profits - is all singing in unison the beauty of mobile phones, then is that not the ultimate judge-and-jury for this?”

The ultimate judge and jury is of course the consumer. The recording industry isn’t neutral at all. But of course as I stroll the streets of my town what I see isn’t geeks but ordinary people using iPods or other MP3 players. What you don’t see are people listening to music on cell phones. This year I’ve spotted just one.

The problem with all the phones you quote are that they are high-end models that geeks like Scoble tend to buy. In the UK which is dominated by ‘pay as you go’ tariff users these people just do not buy high-end phones in any quantity. In other countries the mix may be different but judging from earlier comments I guess it similarly applies in the US.

If and when 3G phone services become a mass-market in the UK and US then I might see changes but until then or unless something like WiMax comes of age then Apple and other iPod wannabes do not have much to worry about. MS cannot be worried if it is launching Zune?

“Goebbels (again) - on the 18% to 14% point. Good point, not that huge a drop. But that was in only 6 months. But note when I say crashed - I do take it from end of 2004, when iPod global market share was at its peak of 80%.”

Not a good point, THE point. If we accept your product definition, you could have stated the same last year (when you predicted it would occur this summer) since the drop from 80% to 18% had already occurred. Ultimately, your winding diatribe is simply sensational fluff.

“I would challenge you Goebbels to find any other company any time in history, to have owned an a market with 80% market share at the end of one year, and then find itself with 14% of that market in a year and a half - and then see what was the review of that company?”

Why would I bother when I can’t find a single analyst that agrees with you about Apple? You are sensationalizing again. Apple didn’t have huge penetration for 2001-2002. So now we are left with a small insignificant blip on the radar: slight dominance for about 6 quarters according to you.

“Would be a case study for MBA courses in how to dismantle a success. How to snatch defeat from the jaws of history. And I also am starting to believe this may be a world record for destroying a market-leading position. Not good. Not good at all.”

Again, using your own numbers, you can’t possibly agree with yourself: a “crash” does not take a year and a half. The “crash” occurred in the first half of ’05. Dominance for 6 quarters is not a market leading position especially when going from 0-14%.

As far as I see it, you have 3 “salient” aspects to your argument. 1. Based on your product definitions, Apple already had less than 20% marketshare half way through 2005 because you count all phones whether they are used, nevermind if they are used as primary device or not. 2. You claim that Apple saw a huge drop off (that is not attributal to seasonal change, despite everyone disagreeing with you) and a subsequent drop (small) following the next quarter. 3. Survey data indicating mobile usage patterns and downloads.

1. The first category I think is entirely spurious and you seemingly agree.

2. You will be proven wrong in the next quarter where Apple has a new product refresh (with significant availability during the quarte) and/or the holiday buying season.

(Will you change your tune if iPod sales increase again? I doubt it.)

3. This is the area where you could be most convincing, but because of the speciousness of most of your arguments, I doubt most of them. (For example, in Asia where most music is pirated by mp3 CDs and other means, how can I assume that half of all Koreans prefer a mobile to an mp3 player just because half of music is purchased by download? You point to a limited survey that says people listen to music on their phones, but I do not know if this is their primary listening device or if they also have an mp3 player, etc…)

As far as I can tell, the true purpose of your rants is to claim that convergence has been achieved and is accepted by the consumer. I see no real evidence of that: I simply see a mobile industry that quickly outmodes previous technology and releases new devices with new functions that may or may not be used… moreover, in key regions, these devices may not even “possess” the capabilities you claim because carriers act as gatekeepers and lock-out much of the functionality.

If you want to make any headway with your theory, you most provide better data for the adoption of this functionality. Not only that the functionality is adopted (I know most of my friends would say they’ve played music on their phone or use the camera to a poll, but they do not do so in any meaningful way) but that it achieves dominance over other modes of consumption.

Further, your attacks on Apple (they are attacks — you conveniently skipped the “Management Denials” portion of my comment) are unfounded, prejudicial, and harmful to any fruitful discourse. Much of your argument (going beyond your completely specious product categorization) is predicated on weaker iPod sales… Any strength in iPod sales would invalidate your theory even if we accepted your absurd marketshare numbers.

Otherwise, many of your arguments are simply wrong (only geeks buy iPods), anecdotal at best, logical fallacies, or circular rhetoric with no logic.

“Goebbels (again) - on the 18% to 14% point. Good point, not that huge a drop. But that was in only 6 months. But note when I say crashed - I do take it from end of 2004, when iPod global market share was at its peak of 80%.”

Not a good point, THE point. If we accept your product definition, you could have stated the same last year (when you predicted it would occur this summer) since the drop from 80% to 18% had already occurred. Ultimately, your winding diatribe is simply sensational fluff.

“I would challenge you Goebbels to find any other company any time in history, to have owned an a market with 80% market share at the end of one year, and then find itself with 14% of that market in a year and a half - and then see what was the review of that company?”

Why would I bother when I can’t find a single analyst that agrees with you about Apple? You are sensationalizing again. Apple didn’t have huge penetration for 2001-2002. So now we are left with a small insignificant blip on the radar: slight dominance for about 6 quarters according to you.

“Would be a case study for MBA courses in how to dismantle a success. How to snatch defeat from the jaws of history. And I also am starting to believe this may be a world record for destroying a market-leading position. Not good. Not good at all.”

Again, using your own numbers, you can’t possibly agree with yourself: a “crash” does not take a year and a half. The “crash” occurred in the first half of ’05. Dominance for 6 quarters is not a market leading position especially when going from 0-14%.

As far as I see it, you have 3 “salient” aspects to your argument. 1. Based on your product definitions, Apple already had less than 20% marketshare half way through 2005 because you count all phones whether they are used, nevermind if they are used as primary device or not. 2. You claim that Apple saw a huge drop off (that is not attributal to seasonal change, despite everyone disagreeing with you) and a subsequent drop (small) following the next quarter. 3. Survey data indicating mobile usage patterns and downloads.

1. The first category I think is entirely spurious and you seemingly agree.

2. You will be proven wrong in the next quarter where Apple has a new product refresh (with significant availability during the quarte) and/or the holiday buying season.

(Will you change your tune if iPod sales increase again? I doubt it.)

3. This is the area where you could be most convincing, but because of the speciousness of most of your arguments, I doubt most of them. (For example, in Asia where most music is pirated by mp3 CDs and other means, how can I assume that half of all Koreans prefer a mobile to an mp3 player just because half of music is purchased by download? You point to a limited survey that says people listen to music on their phones, but I do not know if this is their primary listening device or if they also have an mp3 player, etc…)

As far as I can tell, the true purpose of your rants is to claim that convergence has been achieved and is accepted by the consumer. I see no real evidence of that: I simply see a mobile industry that quickly outmodes previous technology and releases new devices with new functions that may or may not be used… moreover, in key regions, these devices may not even “possess” the capabilities you claim because carriers act as gatekeepers and lock-out much of the functionality.

If you want to make any headway with your theory, you most provide better data for the adoption of this functionality. Not only that the functionality is adopted (I know most of my friends would say they’ve played music on their phone or use the camera to a poll, but they do not do so in any meaningful way) but that it achieves dominance over other modes of consumption.

Further, your attacks on Apple (they are attacks — you conveniently skipped the “Management Denials” portion of my comment) are unfounded, prejudicial, and harmful to any fruitful discourse. Much of your argument (going beyond your completely specious product categorization) is predicated on weaker iPod sales… Any strength in iPod sales would invalidate your theory even if we accepted your absurd marketshare numbers.

Otherwise, many of your arguments are simply wrong (only geeks buy iPods), anecdotal at best, logical fallacies, or circular rhetoric with no logic.

Goebbels

(You sound very much like the Goebbels/Tim we have also commenting a lot at our blogsite, if so, thank you for the double-debating, here and there)

We find common ground, like I’ve already indicated at my blogsite on the same points. Yes, you are correct, that it Apple manages to recover from the decline in sales, and for the third quarter 2006 reports iPod sales of more than 8.1 million units - THEN you have some claim to a recovery, about seasonality and yes, I will definitely report that.

I say “some” because for Apple to completely dismiss the Spring of 2006 as seasonal, they would have to grow sales to above 14.1 million units (the level of last quarter 2006 - for any chance of resuming an overall growth in sales and prove the two quarters of decline in sales of 46% were not a terminal downturn in sales and declining demand for stand-alone MP3 players, but a real growth. So yes, if there is ANY growth in sales over 8.1 million units for iPods for the third quarter, I will report it. But I won’t stop saying the iPod is losing the battle, unless they recover strong enough to catch up to the previous 17 quarters of continuous growth - ie the third quarter sales of over 14.1 million units.

But I will report it. Separately, as we’ve agreed at my blogsite, we will wait for the IDC/Informa report for the year 2006. If IDC/Informa count iPods as a separate market, then I will report that. If IDC/Informa reports 2006 as a single market - then I will also report the iPod numbers at the end of the year - and those will be much MUCH worse than 14% worldwide. Apple will be happy to capture 10% of the musicplayer market for this full year, by the opposite trends reported so far. Apple reports two quarters of declining sales of iPods while four out of the five big phone makers all report record sales or unmet demand for their musicphones. The last of the big five musicphone makers (Samsung) did not mention musicphone demand at this latest quarterly results, but they have the most powerful musicphones as they more or less invented this category, and I trust Samsung is more interested in pushing the next battle, digital TV broadcasts for the phone, that are now exploding in demand in South Korea.

Tomi Ahonen

Goebbels

(You sound very much like the Goebbels/Tim we have also commenting a lot at our blogsite, if so, thank you for the double-debating, here and there)

We find common ground, like I’ve already indicated at my blogsite on the same points. Yes, you are correct, that it Apple manages to recover from the decline in sales, and for the third quarter 2006 reports iPod sales of more than 8.1 million units - THEN you have some claim to a recovery, about seasonality and yes, I will definitely report that.

I say “some” because for Apple to completely dismiss the Spring of 2006 as seasonal, they would have to grow sales to above 14.1 million units (the level of last quarter 2006 - for any chance of resuming an overall growth in sales and prove the two quarters of decline in sales of 46% were not a terminal downturn in sales and declining demand for stand-alone MP3 players, but a real growth. So yes, if there is ANY growth in sales over 8.1 million units for iPods for the third quarter, I will report it. But I won’t stop saying the iPod is losing the battle, unless they recover strong enough to catch up to the previous 17 quarters of continuous growth - ie the third quarter sales of over 14.1 million units.

But I will report it. Separately, as we’ve agreed at my blogsite, we will wait for the IDC/Informa report for the year 2006. If IDC/Informa count iPods as a separate market, then I will report that. If IDC/Informa reports 2006 as a single market - then I will also report the iPod numbers at the end of the year - and those will be much MUCH worse than 14% worldwide. Apple will be happy to capture 10% of the musicplayer market for this full year, by the opposite trends reported so far. Apple reports two quarters of declining sales of iPods while four out of the five big phone makers all report record sales or unmet demand for their musicphones. The last of the big five musicphone makers (Samsung) did not mention musicphone demand at this latest quarterly results, but they have the most powerful musicphones as they more or less invented this category, and I trust Samsung is more interested in pushing the next battle, digital TV broadcasts for the phone, that are now exploding in demand in South Korea.

Tomi Ahonen

POSTSCRIPT

I made one final posting on the topic, to collect the various discussions together. I of course mentioned this blog and the 63 comments here - with a link.

If you want to see the commentary - and I’ve tried to make it balances and representative from calling it excellent to calling it the worst writing ever, see this link

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2006/07/electronioc_ech.html

Thank you all!

Tomi Ahonen

POSTSCRIPT

I made one final posting on the topic, to collect the various discussions together. I of course mentioned this blog and the 63 comments here - with a link.

If you want to see the commentary - and I’ve tried to make it balances and representative from calling it excellent to calling it the worst writing ever, see this link

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2006/07/electronioc_ech.html

Thank you all!

Tomi Ahonen

Gosh, Tomi. You were real spot-on with that prediction. So, how does it feel to see the iPod absolutely murdering the competition this holiday season?

Leave the prognostication to people with common sense, duder.

Gosh, Tomi. You were real spot-on with that prediction. So, how does it feel to see the iPod absolutely murdering the competition this holiday season?

Leave the prognostication to people with common sense, duder.

1500 2006 capacity dodge ram tow

1500 2006 capacity dodge ram tow