Audioholics wrote about why HD-DVD has already failed.
I have an HD-DVD. I spent my own $500 on it. I also bought a $4,000 HD screen from Sony (it's a lot sharper than any of the screens my friends have). So, that makes me an expert on HD. Heheh.
But, Audioholics totally is wrong about HD-DVD.
Let's take on each point.
1) No one likes false starts. This is bullshit. When I bought my first CD, there was only 100 CDs at Tower Records. And all the "audiophiles" said the format sucked. I remember those guys — I sold audio equipment to geeks in Silicon Valley and they'd come in and debate me about why vinyl is a superior format. I told them they were smoking good dope. CD's quietness would beat any of Vinyl's superiorness and I turned out right. Same will go for DVD-HD. My friends come over, I put on a HD-DVD and they are amazed. Even Chris Pirillo and Ponzi.
2) Format wars don't sell players. They are right here. I bought HD-DVD because it was half the price of Blueray and there are already more titles at the local Best Buy.
3) The new formats are not stunning leaps forward in tech. I think this is the biggest bullshit comment (see, I can swear now that I'm leaving Microsoft). Anyone who comes over and watches an HD-DVD says "wow." It's HUGE difference in sharpness over previous DVDs.
4) Studios are greedy, unmotivated, etc. Yeah. Agreed. The reason I tell my friends NOT to buy HD-DVD is all due to the studios. They haven't released any movies in either format yet. They are stupid. But, what will their stupidness cause? The increasing rise of Bittorrent!!! Why? Cause assholes like me with $4,000 screens aren't gonna put up with this forever. We're gonna look for content and if the studios don't get on board FAST I'm gonna go elsewhere. Calling Steve Jobs!!!
5) Playstation 3 can't save the world. Well, I agree there. I already bought an Xbox360. You think I'm going to buy another console just to get another format? You're smoking good dope!
6) Ignoring history. See #4. If you don't get me content, I'm gonna find it anyway. I can only watch so much of Discovery Channel's Sunrise Channel before I'll get bored.
7) That people like new tech but are confused by it. When you get your HDTV home, you gotta make changes. You'll need to buy a new DVD player (your old one, if it doesn't upscale to HD resolutions) is not gonna be good enough. You'll need to make sure you find the HD content on your cable box. Even if you have Xbox 360 you'll need to get the HD cable and make sure to switch it to "HD." (A coworker didn't have it on for months until it was pointed out to him and it made a HUGE difference).
8) Enthusiasts are getting tired and smarter. Oh, I'm not tired yet of wasting my money. But, we definitely are hooked into a smart community. That's a HUGE change.
9) A skeptical media doesn't help. This is TRUE. Do you know WHY they are skeptical? When I was a the local TV station I asked when they were gonna be HD-compatible (they aren't yet). Turns out in 2007 and they are PISSED. They wanted to buy a new satellite truck, but instead, will have to buy new HD equipment and cameras. Not cheap or easy. They are gonna drag their feet as long as possible.
10) Broadband and IPTV to compete. Hey, I thought these were the same thing. Actually, I got a tour of the IPTV facility Microsoft built down in Silicon Valley. They ARE the same thing, albeit IPTV means that the phone company is gonna bring you 30 megabit DSL lines to your house. What does that mean? Four continuous channels (soon six) of HD. Imagine watching a baseball game with four windows — all in HD, all at the same time. Now THAT will blow away HD-DVD!!
So, what sucks about HD-DVD. Not the resolution. Not the number of titles (although that does suck right now). Not the technology. What sucks? The freaking price!!!
I can buy a scaling DVD for about $100. But the HD-DVD cost $500. Sorry, that's prohibitive for most people. When it comes down to $200 wake me up. Until then it'll be a failure. If I had an extra $500 right now I'd buy an Xbox, not HD-DVD.
Why do I say that? Cause Xbox Live delivers more HD content right now than HD-DVD.
Like I said, it's all about HD. Pay attention studios, you are about to get shaken up! More on this topic on Memeorandum.