You might have missed that Microsoft's stock has been in a freefall lately.
My friends have been asking me "why doesn't Wall Street believe Steve Ballmer?"
That's an easy one. Cause he didn't convince the grass roots influence networks first. Why have Google and Apple done so well in the last three years? Cause the grassroots loves them. That's the powerroot of the industry. Ideas here don't come from the big influencers and move down. No, they start on the street and move up. Anyone miss how Google got big? Not by throwing a press conference.
Ballmer should not listen to his PR team and instead should live the blogging way.
Huh?
Did you miss that I turned into an international news story that has gotten more attention than everything Microsoft announced at its big TechED conference this week?
How did I do that?
I talked with the grassroots FIRST. Against the advice, by the way, of a lot of PR people (they wanted me to break the news to Walt Mossberg or someone "important" first — they thought that's how I was going to get the biggest story going).
They all are wrong. I almost bought into it too. In fact, I did. On Saturday I talked with maybe 20 people and said "can you wait until Tuesday to talk about it?" I wanted to give the story to the Wall Street Journal too. Not to mention I wanted to tell my coworkers before the story hit. I didn't get that chance and I'm lucky, in hindsight, that I didn't. Because the story started on the grassroots first it got far far bigger than if I broke it on a big newspaper.
It's a lesson I'll never forget again.
Journalists need sources for stories and they need to convince editors that stories are important to pay attention to.
What was going on this weekend? Journalists were emailing TechMeme around to their editors and saying "something important is going on here." How do I know that? Cause when the journalists were calling that's what they told me. They saw a blog mob and that helped them sell the story.
Analysts, on the other hand, also watch what grass roots are saying. The wisdom of crowds. It drives a lot of buying decisions. Why is Google's stock higher than Yahoo's? (Yahoo does pretty much the same thing as Google and has more users, after all). Because the influential users all use Google. When I ask my audiences which email or search system they use they predominantly answer Google. That turns into hype. Hype sells advertising (advertisers want to reach the influential users, not the clueless ones). That turns into profits and profits turns into stock price.
So, why is Microsoft stock price in freefall? Cause Steve Ballmer didn't come to the grassroots and convince him that Microsoft's business strategy makes sense. We still haven't explained, for instance, to the grassroots why Windows Vista matters. Or why spending $2 billion on server farms will make any sense to them. Or why the Xbox is going to be profitable.
What would I do? I would show up unannounced at three conferences. BloggerCon, Gnomedex, and BlogHer. No PR team there to spin. No lawyers. No video crew. And focus on answering those three things. Windows Vista. Investments in server farms. Xbox profitability.
Just show up and let people on the grassroots get to know you and answer those questions over and over and over again (on Sunday I did about 40 interviews with everyone who was at VLoggerCon, no matter how small the audience they had). Answer their questions. Even the harshest stupidest Slashdot style questions.
Do that and you'll see the stock price go back up.
Oh, and by the way, I'm not selling my Microsoft stock. Why? Cause I already know the answers to those three questions and I'm quite confident in the future of Microsoft. It's just that I'm not the CEO of Microsoft.
Show up at Gnomedex, answer those three questions to anyone who'll ask, and you'll see the power of the Grassroots.
I learned the power on Sunday. Thanks to VLoggerCon for teaching me that. Oh, and I'm being talked about on GeekBrief.TV today (Cali was launching a campaign to replace Ballmer with me — hey, Steve, I'd give her your first interview!)
@42. And not many “normal people” know or care about the NPR art critic. I say take a random poll walking down Broadway in Times Square to get a true picture.
Anyway, you are completely off base regarding my “thninking”. I don’t pay attention to MSM, for the very reason how your “non-story” played out there. My point is MSM is swayed more by ratings and page hits than they are with doing any actual news. Same with a lot of tech bloggers-they seem only to care about hits and where they rank.
If we relied completely on MSM for our stories Dan Rather would still have a job. Thankfully it was some actual intelligent bloggers that cared more about a story than they did about getting linked to that allowed them to get to the bottom of Dan Rather’s “story”. So, I’m not saying bloggers can’t add value and can’t fill a void. It just seems the political bloggers are more insightful than the “a list” tech bloggers. And the tech reporters at on-line MSM outlets. I guess I should have qualified that. It’s not that ALL bloggers wouldn’t know a news story if it bit them in the ass, just a considerable amount of tech bloggers.
@44. Nice try. But believe it or not that’s not me. But, no matter what I would say, I’m sure I couldn’t convince you.
@44. Nice try. But believe it or not that’s not me. But, no matter what I would say, I’m sure I couldn’t convince you.
Robert,
I’ve been thinking of starting a “Microsoft Preservation Society” to preserve all that we know and so dearly love about Microsoft - in particular the chair that Steve Ballmer was alleged to have thrown across the room, together with a recording of his threat to kill Google - if such a recording can be found. Together with a robot Ballmer specially designed for the strenuous task of throwing chairs, that can be activated by pressing the nose.
Would you be up for the position of President of such a Microsoft Preservation Society? Or should I ask Bill Gates?
Robert,
I’ve been thinking of starting a “Microsoft Preservation Society” to preserve all that we know and so dearly love about Microsoft - in particular the chair that Steve Ballmer was alleged to have thrown across the room, together with a recording of his threat to kill Google - if such a recording can be found. Together with a robot Ballmer specially designed for the strenuous task of throwing chairs, that can be activated by pressing the nose.
Would you be up for the position of President of such a Microsoft Preservation Society? Or should I ask Bill Gates?
Robert,
The comments on Google and Apple working best with grassroots (as opposed to Microsoft) are well understood. Apple certainly still has much to learn about working with the blogger and news community, and its secrecy is beyond that of any other tech company, with few exceptions.
I don’t know if Microsoft can turn it around, given how well people love to despise the front-runner. Even Google is getting a lot more scrutiny nowadays given their position and their entry into new non-search markets.
Robert,
The comments on Google and Apple working best with grassroots (as opposed to Microsoft) are well understood. Apple certainly still has much to learn about working with the blogger and news community, and its secrecy is beyond that of any other tech company, with few exceptions.
I don’t know if Microsoft can turn it around, given how well people love to despise the front-runner. Even Google is getting a lot more scrutiny nowadays given their position and their entry into new non-search markets.
[...] Menarik menyimak nasehat Scoble, seorang blogger selebritis yang nampaknya cukup sukses mengkomunikasikan Microsoft melalui blognya dan ‘hengkangnya’ ke Podtech pekan lalu cukup membuat heboh jagad perblogan, buat Steve Ballmer terkait ketidak percayaan Wall Street pada dirinya. Berikut adalah sedikit kutipannya: That’s an easy one. Cause he didn’t convince the grass roots influence networks first. Why have Google and Apple done so well in the last three years? Cause the grassroots loves them. That’s the powerroot of the industry. Ideas here don’t come from the big influencers and move down. No, they start on the street and move up. Anyone miss how Google got big? Not by throwing a press conference. [...]
Hmm
I think that’s a bit naive
When the City or Wall street takes against a company they don’t give a fuck about grass roots influence its what’s “trendy” or what’s hot in the markets.
For example back in the day the City hated BT’s Finance director co’s he wouldn’t print stock to fund a buying spree like Voda did.
Hmm
I think that’s a bit naive
When the City or Wall street takes against a company they don’t give a fuck about grass roots influence its what’s “trendy” or what’s hot in the markets.
For example back in the day the City hated BT’s Finance director co’s he wouldn’t print stock to fund a buying spree like Voda did.
hi robert - i agree very much. you wrote an important piece on how pr and communications have to be adjusted. top-down is easier, it’s what we all are used to and it takes a lot less time. bottom-up grassroots alone won’t do it alone, either. it is getting more and more attention, expertise, momentum. it’s about combining both. what a big thing to do! you know it - well after our conversation i know how much time you invest into building up that grassroot community and reputation for yourself.
and in the end it’s about the flow: you cannot steer/control things neither bottom up nor top down. you have to try to, have a clear intention, then go for it.
hope your stock goes up and all the best for the move to sf.
hi robert - i agree very much. you wrote an important piece on how pr and communications have to be adjusted. top-down is easier, it’s what we all are used to and it takes a lot less time. bottom-up grassroots alone won’t do it alone, either. it is getting more and more attention, expertise, momentum. it’s about combining both. what a big thing to do! you know it - well after our conversation i know how much time you invest into building up that grassroot community and reputation for yourself.
and in the end it’s about the flow: you cannot steer/control things neither bottom up nor top down. you have to try to, have a clear intention, then go for it.
hope your stock goes up and all the best for the move to sf.
“Did you miss that I turned into an international news story that has gotten more attention than everything Microsoft announced at its big TechED conference this week?
How did I do that?
I talked with the grassroots FIRST. ”
Robert — I really think you’re creating a point out of thin air, here. You would have been an “international news story” no matter what you did. Blogging is big deal, Microsoft is huge. Enjoy it, btw. It’ll never happen again. Your fame is directly related to the fact that you’re doing something against the grain at a huge international company, and your departure is inevitably a news story.
It frankly didn’t matter *who* you talked to about it. The result would have been exactly the same.
If this is the premise for the rest of your argument, then I’m really not sure the rest of the story holds together.
“Did you miss that I turned into an international news story that has gotten more attention than everything Microsoft announced at its big TechED conference this week?
How did I do that?
I talked with the grassroots FIRST. ”
Robert — I really think you’re creating a point out of thin air, here. You would have been an “international news story” no matter what you did. Blogging is big deal, Microsoft is huge. Enjoy it, btw. It’ll never happen again. Your fame is directly related to the fact that you’re doing something against the grain at a huge international company, and your departure is inevitably a news story.
It frankly didn’t matter *who* you talked to about it. The result would have been exactly the same.
If this is the premise for the rest of your argument, then I’m really not sure the rest of the story holds together.
4 Letters TRUE!
4 Letters TRUE!
Robert, I’ve been trying to say the same thing to people working with me at the OpenRightsGroup.org.uk, but they aren’t having any of it. I just did a BBC TV interview outside of the Apple Store here in London talking about DRM, and you know what? They didn’t come to me because of a press release, they came because they want an alternative voice that will push back against the industry and they’ve read about me elsewhere.
Personally, I think press releases are a waste of time and effort. I have better things to be doing with my time. But the lure of old school PR remains strong. Actually, less of a lure, more of a stranglehold.
Robert, I’ve been trying to say the same thing to people working with me at the OpenRightsGroup.org.uk, but they aren’t having any of it. I just did a BBC TV interview outside of the Apple Store here in London talking about DRM, and you know what? They didn’t come to me because of a press release, they came because they want an alternative voice that will push back against the industry and they’ve read about me elsewhere.
Personally, I think press releases are a waste of time and effort. I have better things to be doing with my time. But the lure of old school PR remains strong. Actually, less of a lure, more of a stranglehold.
MS’s problem is the computing world is diversifying, expanding, diverging, not converging, and one company simply can’t be at the center of it all anymore. One size fits all doesn’t cut it anymore. When the PC was new, yes it did. One type of device (desktop PC) for work and home. Now apple is showing it makes more sense to use your PC at work (where it’s the best tool for that job) and buy a mac for home use. The net is even bigger, and it simply can’t be controlled by one company. MS can’t own the API to the net, much as it would like to.
The stock is down because built into the old, higher price was the expectation that MS would be able to move into and control all these other sectors of computing. Increasingly, it looks like MS can’t succeed and it will be stuck with the monopoly profits on windows and office (not a bad thing to be stuck with, but the stock had to come down if that’s what’s looks to be left to MS, not something grander).
MS can keep trying, but it’s a losing proposition. One company just can’t be at the center of computing anymore. It’s just not feasible, plus it’s politically impossible in the long term internationally to have one U.S. company so central.
MS’s problem is the computing world is diversifying, expanding, diverging, not converging, and one company simply can’t be at the center of it all anymore. One size fits all doesn’t cut it anymore. When the PC was new, yes it did. One type of device (desktop PC) for work and home. Now apple is showing it makes more sense to use your PC at work (where it’s the best tool for that job) and buy a mac for home use. The net is even bigger, and it simply can’t be controlled by one company. MS can’t own the API to the net, much as it would like to.
The stock is down because built into the old, higher price was the expectation that MS would be able to move into and control all these other sectors of computing. Increasingly, it looks like MS can’t succeed and it will be stuck with the monopoly profits on windows and office (not a bad thing to be stuck with, but the stock had to come down if that’s what’s looks to be left to MS, not something grander).
MS can keep trying, but it’s a losing proposition. One company just can’t be at the center of computing anymore. It’s just not feasible, plus it’s politically impossible in the long term internationally to have one U.S. company so central.
hi Robert!
as one of those Mac folks in the vlogosphere, i’d have to say that Macs have always been the choice of content creators. it’s just that, currently, we are enjoying some press because media creation has become hot so the Mac is enjoying the ride.
i also think that the buzz around online media such as podcasting and online video has added a lot of value to the story of you leaving Microsoft. Videobloggers and podcasters would definitely talk about that story because it is of interest to them. If you were leaving Microsoft to join an investment firm, i’m not sure that the buzz would’ve been great no matter how many grassroot investment conferences you attended (if such a thing exists).
gonna get a Mac now?
hi Robert!
as one of those Mac folks in the vlogosphere, i’d have to say that Macs have always been the choice of content creators. it’s just that, currently, we are enjoying some press because media creation has become hot so the Mac is enjoying the ride.
i also think that the buzz around online media such as podcasting and online video has added a lot of value to the story of you leaving Microsoft. Videobloggers and podcasters would definitely talk about that story because it is of interest to them. If you were leaving Microsoft to join an investment firm, i’m not sure that the buzz would’ve been great no matter how many grassroot investment conferences you attended (if such a thing exists).
gonna get a Mac now?
As long as Steve is running the show, there is no hope. He needs to move out, not Bill…
As long as Steve is running the show, there is no hope. He needs to move out, not Bill…
Apropos Scobleizer
Er bringt mal wieder brilliant auf den Punkt, was Kommunikation 2.0 ausmacht: Did you miss that I turned into an international news story that has gotten more attention than everything Microsoft announced at its big TechED conference this week? How…
[...] Scobles Blogger-Theorie über Microsoft anhaltend maue Perfomance an den Aktienmärkten: You might have missed that Microsoft’s stock has been in a freefall lately. My friends have been asking me “why doesn’t Wall Street believe Steve Ballmer?” That’s an easy one. Cause he didn’t convince the grass roots influence networks first. Why have Google and Apple done so well in the last three years? Cause the grassroots loves them. That’s the powerroot of the industry. Ideas here don’t come from the big influencers and move down. No, they start on the street and move up. Anyone miss how Google got big? Not by throwing a press conference. [...]
[...] Scobleizer - Microsoft Geek Blogger » Why Wall Street didn’t believe Steve Ballmer (and what he can do about it): yeah, well… I was in 100+ newspapers and on a bunch of radio stations because I saved a TRAIN TRESTLE in 1999. What do you say to that Mr. Scoble? Honestly now, lets not get too self important. The nature of wire services means I can kill a duck and get in 100 papers if I have enough people willing to waste paper about it. [...]
Wrong wrong wrong. If your so-called ‘grassroots’ finds an idea interesting, they’ll talk about it. It doesn’t matter if they get the story from a big media source, another blog, or they find it on their own. Microsoft has been faltering because, aside from the xbox360, they haven’t done anything worth talking about. Additionally, Ballmer is a poor PR point guy, the guy is not personable in any way.
Wrong wrong wrong. If your so-called ‘grassroots’ finds an idea interesting, they’ll talk about it. It doesn’t matter if they get the story from a big media source, another blog, or they find it on their own. Microsoft has been faltering because, aside from the xbox360, they haven’t done anything worth talking about. Additionally, Ballmer is a poor PR point guy, the guy is not personable in any way.
Steve Balmer knows what he is doing. Dont be concerned about Microsoft stock prices. Microsoft is not going anywhere.
Phil
Steve Balmer knows what he is doing. Dont be concerned about Microsoft stock prices. Microsoft is not going anywhere.
Phil
[...] They need a face. They don’t have one. They have nowhere to deflect their own criticism. This is the case with many large tech companies. In fact I’m still trying to figure out why I need a Microsoft product. Don’t get me wrong I use them. Only when I have to. But truly they seem to be more of a headache than a blessing. So now with its chief evangelist gone. Is their really a reason to hold my breath. Or should I just switch to linux? Or Help Me God, Apple. The lesson to be learned here is, your company needs more than one “face”, your company needs many voices. It’s needs to empower your customer to be your number one evangelist. This is the reason Microsoft’s Stock is in a FreeFall. And it will continue to freefall as long as they fail to deliver products, and fail to have a strong voice at the top, and interacting with their valued customers online. [...]
[...] In a recent post of his he discussed why Steve Ballmer and Microsoft aren’t currently the darlings of Wall Street. [...]
Scoble gives wrong advice to Microsoft
Scobleizer: My friends have been asking me "why doesn’t Wall Street believe Steve Ballmer?" That’s an easy one. Cause he didn’t convince the grass roots influence networks first. Why have Google and Apple done so well in the last three…
[...] Scoble’s Eintrag ist lesenswert, mit interessanten Links. Und bereits 60 Kommentaren. Aus meiner Sicht hat er recht. Ich denke: - Bottom up Kommunikation wird immer wichtiger - sie ersetzt den Top down Ansatz nicht - sie ist viel aufwändiger als der Top down Ansatz, wenn man sie ehrlich und aufrichtig machen will - also einen echten Dialog anstrebt. [...]
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[...] our marketing team will take more of a Google approach as Scoble noted a couple of years ago - which actually is a Silicon Valley approach (case in point: the way my friends at Zing bubbled up [...]
MS is trailing behind when it comes to online promotions, even the oft quoted “popular MS Search” only has a tiny sliver of the SE pie.
MS is trailing behind when it comes to online promotions, even the oft quoted “popular MS Search” only has a tiny sliver of the SE pie.