I (along with many others...) saw the "leaked* (*cough* PR *cough*) memos as a hand sign to Wall Street analysts, letting them know that, as always, MS is aware of current market conditions and is on the job. But the Bubble 2.0 hype, driven -- as ever -- by tech pundits who have an interest in proclaiming the Next Cool Thing can't overcome some hard realities:

MS, a $300B company that owns 90% of the world's entry points to the internet (even higher in the enterprise) is hardly competing with a company that produces search results, online email and pretty maps for the low-margin consumer market. Although, granted, taking some of that Google revenue would be nice...

The challenge for MS is to better coordinate their siloed product offerings, reducing over-reliance on the Partners, into packages of *solutions* for their business customers. Maybe its time for Microsoft Global Services?

It will be interesting to see how much changes and how fast once Google's stock price pops.

I prefer last.fm to Pandora, personally.

Not sure how they linked Sioux and Metallica, but it got into this weird downward spin zone and 5 songs away from the ever-overdone 'Kiss Them For Me', I was hearing bone-crunching mid-90s style trash, and it was that way until it got on this grundge-fest and Industrial click, with a zap back to pre-Joshua Tree U2 and then an Alarmish sound feel zone, with Sioux mixed in at various times and then a kick to ear-bleeding yelling Dry Kill Logic and more trash. I can't really make any sense of this whatsoever. Frankly the DirectTV, Comcast and Sat radio stations do a far better job, blended better, if less direction. My DJ, buggers...fun for random discovery I guess. I could hit randomize on my CDs and do just as well, in fact better.

Great, so I decide to check out this Pandora, what all the bloggers a been a buzz over, never mind that I have spent years and hours, ripping my CDs of a liftime into a decent playlist, that takes months to play thru, but yet I do go there, and get 'sudden increase in traffic, registered users only, would you like to register...blah blah blah.' So I do, with a spam-filtered Yahoo, I poke around but then it crashes on me. I go back in, try and search, it crashes again. I fired it up, 3x, and a charm, and I create a 'Siouxsie and the Banshees' station, after an eternal waiting period, it comes up, but it sounds like it's being pumped thro tinny rusted Chicken Noodle soup cans, Winamp with DFX it is not. I have super high bandwith here, so not that. And the volume between songs is not equalized, ouchhhh. Loud, soft, Loud, play with that volume knob like a pro mixer, wheee.

And then the selections, worthy effort, but reminds me of the 'High Fidelity' obsessives, seeking mystical links where there are none. And I got it to freeze up "taking longer than expected" and it "had a small problem" with Transvision Vamp, Massive Attack, Sigue Sigue Sputnik and Sisters of Mercy. Wheee. Sioux worked, tho The Creatures didn't. On second try, Sioux no longer worked. Buggggggggggy. And then it quit wholesale. Exited out, came back in, and plugged in "Sisters of Mercy" but it dumbly asked me if artist or if song name, I clicked artist, and it froze anew.

Well so much for that. Great first impression. Why does all this web rot, just never work?

Now if this like RadioTracker, and could cut to high-quality mp3 auto downloading, well Hello Dolly. It do that for the pay version?

Musical Hairsplitting - "The act of classifying music and musicians into pathologically picayune categories: "The Vienna Franks are a good example of urban white acid folk revivalism crossed with ska." - Douglas Coupland, in Generation X.

This is a worthy effort, but yet still further proves how much raw human intelligence trumps automated mock-ups.

You crashed Pandora... :-)

I agree with you that a stand-alone Pandora application would be nice. On the subject of a portable version of Pandora, it is apparently in the works. I interviewed the company's founder, Tim Westergren, for an article I wrote recently on the service. Here's an excerpt from the article:

"One of the most commonly requested features has been the ability to listen to Pandora when not connected to the Internet. Westergren was vague about the specifics, but did say 'the ability to have the exact same experience when you’re not connected is in the cards.' He added, 'Our goal is for this to be the best listening experience anytime and anywhere. That’s our mission—whether you’re jogging or in your car.'"

Robert:

"Pandora is perfect. It builds me a radio station that runs all day long. The problem is it runs in the browser. I want it to run on my task bar as a Windows app."

I agree Pandora rocks, thanks for the link. I use Firefox and it's just another tab in my browser (which is always open). Any reason you can't operate this way?

Also, does the Hotmail Beta (which is clearly based on Outlook Web Access) work fully in Firefox or Opera yet?

Regards,
Jeff

Robert:
-----------------
Pandora is perfect. It builds me a radio station that runs all day long. The problem is it runs in the browser. I want it to run on my task bar as a Windows app.
-----------------

Use Firefox and download the "minize to tray" plugin. Now you can minimize your Pandora window to the tray. I use it and it works perfectly...

Good luck!

A good analysis from Peter Rip, managing director of Leapfrog Ventures, that seemed to not make the Technorati, Rice O'Roni charts... ;)

Web 2.0 Entrepreneur Bubble
http://earlystagevc.typepad.com/earlystagevc/20...

Yeah, Robert -- The sharing in Max w/o the Web doesn't make too much sense to me, but Max + Web would be really cool. The best of Smart Clients w/Vista and Web sharing of photos.

Mark Evans has an interesting post today: An Entrepreneur's Take on Web 2.0.

"For a taste of life in the real world, Toronto-based entrepreneur Michael McDerment has penned an insightful piece called 'From the Web 2.0 Trenches: How to Build Real Businesses'."

Seth: not even close to what I want.

Pandora is perfect. It builds me a radio station that runs all day long. The problem is it runs in the browser. I want it to run on my task bar as a Windows app.

You'd pay for a Pandora replacement? Then check out Predixis MusicMagic: same idea, better algorithms.

My contribution...

Web 2.0 junction, what's your function?
Hooking up words and phrases and making 'em function.
Web 2.0 junction, how's that function?
I like tying up words and phrases and clauses.
Web 2.0 junction, watch that function.

man i'm really getting tired of this Web 2.0 word...not world :) the normal consumer isn't interested...it's just a bunch of geeks running around thinking how cool this is...

there are so many issues with so many of these things...e.g. Google mail is apparently the best service out there...it's crashed on me SO many times...and these weren't firefox errors...or anything else for that matter...

i just started using Live Favorites and after 10 minutes of fiddling around...i don't see any results...it's just showing up one error after the other...so i gave up...

im all for MS moving in the web services direction Scoble...but maybe the mantra should be different...maybe u need to tell the services ppl: DESIGN APPS LIKE THEY DESIGN THEM FOR WINDOWS!

Masterful...simply masterful.

What is Web 2.0? You redefine the paradigm
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/11/11/web_two...

I saw this on Max "You just need a Microsoft Passport® network (or MSN® Hotmail) account."

and turned around. booo.

Oh yeah...let's get something straight...Outlook's capability is amazing. Outlook's usability blows arse with glass shards.

there's nothing there that's even as close to as easy to use as is should be. Setting up delegation sucks, setting up rules sucks, they've never designed that UI to be easy to use, they've just designed it to be complex as hell, then thrown wizards and a bunch of other crap at it to hid that UI problem.

Hell, it still has crappy IMAP.

But that does bring up an interesting datapoint with regard to MS...you guys still confuse features with usability.

Robert...Web technology doesn't force a browser. Apple showed that with Dashboard, Konfabulator showed that even earlier.

I have widgets that do all kinds of things for me, don't need a browser to run them in. Hell, you can even run them outside of Dashboard if you like. they're just wrappers for web technology, which is all the browser is.

You really have to stop seeing this as a binary Browser / Fat client issue. It's kinda not the way it is.

Hi Robert

In advance of your trip to Paris. A little phrase you may wish to keep in mind - "Plus Ça Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose".

The reason I mention this phrase is because it makes me smile everytime I see this debate around RSS, Ajax, Widgets and especially the Desktop v Web. Its the same smile I have when I see a classic song covered by some current pop band and my kids think it is their favourite pop bands own original work.

5+ years ago I was working for Netscape in Europe, trying to explain a browser and how webservers would replace client/server model. I also talked about Push Technology, Active Desktop, Channel Definition Frameworks (CDF), Javascript etc.

So IMHO apart from a few brand terms being refreshed and renamed - not a lot has really changed other than broadband/wireless technology making the always-on network more of a reality. But the one term that I expect to come back into Vogue is WEBTOP which is the non-Microsoft term you are trying to devise.

So how long before we see the term Webtop 2.0?

Sam

Mujibur: I'm not fighting ubiquity. Maybe some are here, but I'm not. But on the other hand I'll never give up my Outlook for a Web app (and, yes, I'm on the beta of the new Hotmail which is better than Gmail IMO -- neither holds a candle to the usability of Outlook).

Ron: I can't release the numbers, but yes, apps like Microsoft Max get a TON of downloads.

Microsoft Messenger, for instance, has more than 170 million users who've used it in the past 30 days. And that's even after Skype and Google Talk came out.

"Now, what if we were to build tools that let you target the Web and Windows at the same time and do both with minimal extra effort?"


How exactly would this allow you to have a richer experience on Windows? Because you could dock it in the sidebar? I really hope there is more to it than that.

You are fighting ubiquity. Good luck with that.

Attempts to tie web apps to Windows will fail -- particularly with corporations. Companies that are finally freeing themselves of Microsoft limitations (by moving to web applications) are not going to want to handcuff themselves again.

On the consumer front, I think you overestimate consumers. People don't want to download software onto their boxes because they are worried about spyware. They will sacrifice a rich experience for one that does not requires installation and promotes trial. It's why the majority of folks use webmail today instead of a client mail application.

Sure, there are certain apps (media manipulation) that will be client-side for some time. In general, however, we are entering an era where many compatibility issues are going to slowly evaporate. Why waste engineering resources trying to tie a customer to one platform when you can improve your product for all to enjoy? This is where Google will eat your lunch.

Err.. is Microsoft Max just Picasa? Does anybody use these "one-off" Microsoft products at all? I keep finding these things scattered between Windows versions, never seeming to survive longer than a year or so.

At least when I recommend Picasa to someone, I'll be certain that it'll be supported for at least a few Windows versions. These one-off Microsoft things seem to be OS-specific and often drop off the map.

Ron: sorry, I have a major branding snafu. :-)

Chris, sorry, I meant to say "Windows Vista."

I thought Windows Live was a portal website? How do you sell copies of that?

Either you are f*cked in the head, Scoble, or Microsoft has a major branding snafu here.

Thanks for the link to Pandora.

See, we're back to the portability thing again. I'm hung up on Portable Connected Components - because I agree, that browser can be a ball-and-chain. Web 2.0 is rapidly taking on the proportions of a disjointed mini-OS without much desktop interaction. Which is why a big bear hug is in order here.

"Windows Live — even if it’s a total failure — will sell hundreds of millions of copies over the first few years."

Copies of what?

Sam: that's why I call this "the high def Web" rather than Web 2.0. Web 2.0 already has too much baggage (go and read Dare's blog for an example of the baggage, for instance).

But Flash is certainly one of the ways you can add a little more richness to your services.

Dare and Ryan: Well, if I were doing a "service" like Pandora, I'd definitely do the Web one first. Why? Reach. But then I'd do one that'll make a better experience.

Now, what if we were to build tools that let you target the Web and Windows at the same time and do both with minimal extra effort?

Dare: Windows Live -- even if it's a total failure -- will sell hundreds of millions of copies over the first few years. I could build a pretty darn interesting business with a lot less than 200 million users.

The Web 2.0 folks have their own religious limitations. By only going for reach they are missing the audience that'll be more thrilled with a rich experience.

I'm using Windows Vista and I have the new Sidebar. I see all sorts of opportunities to dock things like Pandora and Flickr and other ICC's in there.

That's why we call it Windows Live and not just Live. It takes the best of the Web and mashes it into Windows.

Sam, I'm curious why you think that. Can you elaborate a little bit?

Wen 2.0 isn't about flash, ajax, any of that, its about a community coming together and making a service worth it.

I love Pandora, i'm with scoble on this, i would pay for this and i haven't payed for music in years.

Thanks for pointing to Pandora.

Pandora reminds me that there are some useful web apps that can be made in Flash. But would anyone consider a Flash app "Web 2.0"?

Scoble, of course you'd like to have a Windows application that could take the place of some of your web based software, but what about the people who are creating these applications? While Windows still has a huge marketshare, doesn't it make sense for people trying to reach the widest audience to develop for the Web so that Linux, Mac and Windows users can all use their software?

Isn't that part of the great thing about Web 2.0?

All-windows strategy? Google and Yahoo! aren't saddled with the burden of only focusing on Windows. Why should we (Windows Live, MSN, whatever) have to handicap ourselves with that myopic view right out of the gate?

Secondly, weren't you just blogging about the problems with having two distinct businesses ship a product (SQL & Visual Studio) just a few days ago? Why is it a good thing when it comes to MSN (Windows Live) and Windows?

Inquiring minds would like to know. ;)

holy hell! thank you mister scoble, i did a search for ace of base and so far the last few tracks have been bloody amazing! introducing me to new artists and groups! this is EXACTLY why i loved napster.

imagine if the "pandora engine" got integrated into iTunes... it would be the ultimate solution.

PS: no one make fun of me because i like ace of base!